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Funds with the best risk adjusted returns

13 Feb 2023 , 06:10 AM

For instance, you cannot compare the returns of an equity fund with that of a debt fund or a commodity fund. Even within equities, it is hard to compare the returns of a large cap fund with a small cap fund or even a growth fund with a value fund. However, amidst this apples versus oranges debate, the one way to compare these diverse categories of funds is on the basis of risk-adjusted returns.

Using risk adjusted returns for mutual funds?

There are several different ways to use risk adjusted returns. One way is to use the Treynor ratio that uses Beta as a measure or risk. The other is to use the Sharpe approach, using standard deviation as a measure of risk. The third approach is to use the Fama based decomposition of returns to separate the fund manager driven returns. The problem with these approaches is their complexity and the dependence on assumptions.

To overcome these problems, we look at risk-adjusted returns from a different perspective. Firstly, instead of individual funds we look at fund categories. This overcomes variances in individual performance. Secondly, we use total risk since the assumption that unsystematic risk is diversified is rather fanciful. However, instead of the standard deviation we use the category range as a measure of risk. 

How equity funds rank on risk adjusted returns?

Here we look at equity oriented funds across various categories based on 1 year returns; ranked on range-adjusted returns.

Morningstar

Category

Category Average

Top Performer

Bottom Performer

Category

Range

Range Adjusted Returns

Sector-Financial Services

7.78

9.84

1.48

8.36

0.9306

Contra

6.14

11.90

1.36

10.54

0.5825

Dividend Yield

3.65

8.31

-1.91

10.22

0.3571

Equity-Infrastructure

5.10

19.37

-1.97

21.34

0.2390

Value

3.21

9.51

-6.28

15.79

0.2033

Small-Cap

2.33

12.30

-5.68

17.98

0.1296

Mid-Cap

2.34

13.44

-7.14

20.58

0.1137

Multi-Cap

2.04

12.41

-6.45

18.86

0.1082

Large & Mid-Cap

0.82

21.46

-12.99

34.45

0.0238

Large-Cap

0.51

8.68

-12.96

21.64

0.0236

ELSS (Tax Savings)

0.20

10.40

-11.68

22.08

0.0091

Focused Fund

-1.14

15.34

-14.31

29.65

-0.0384

Flexi Cap

-1.33

11.96

-11.67

23.63

-0.0563

Equity-ESG

-1.71

9.43

-10.21

19.64

-0.0871

Sector-Healthcare

-6.31

0.03

-22.50

22.53

-0.2801

Sector-Technology

-9.86

-0.88

-18.44

17.56

-0.5615

Data Source: Morningstar

Here are some of the major takeaways. We have excluded FMCG outperformance since the category has only one fund and hence is not representative. The fund category that has done well on risk-adjusted returns is the financial services fund while the bottom performer is the Technology funds. That is hardly surprising. 

Financials saw the best traction in last one year due to the positive loan spreads while IT bore the brunt of domestic salary costs, attrition, global weakness etc. Interestingly, contra and dividend yield were among the other top performing categories. The bottom performing categories over the last one year included healthcare and ESG funds too.

How debt funds rank on risk adjusted returns?

Here we look at debt oriented funds across various categories based on 1 year returns and have then ranked them on range adjusted returns.

Morningstar 

Category

Category 

Average

Top 

Performer

Bottom 

Performer

Category 

Range

Range Adjusted 

Returns

10yr Government Bond

2.41

3.05

0.82

2.23

1.0807

Long Duration

3.27

4.71

1.35

3.36

0.9732

Money Market

4.59

6.26

0.12

6.14

0.7476

Low Duration

4.34

6.04

-0.01

6.05

0.7174

Ultra-Short Duration

4.60

6.50

0.03

6.47

0.7110

Government Bond

2.91

5.48

-1.49

6.97

0.4175

Dynamic Bond

3.75

11.76

-

11.76

0.3189

Corporate Bond

3.07

5.34

-5.01

10.35

0.2966

Floating Rate

4.41

16.78

0.75

16.03

0.2751

Banking & PSU

3.30

10.73

-1.64

12.37

0.2668

Medium to Long Duration

3.31

11.30

-1.92

13.22

0.2504

Short Duration

4.41

27.76

-1.07

28.83

0.1530

Medium Duration

3.93

25.94

-1.87

27.81

0.1413

Data Source: Morningstar

Here are some major takeaways. We ignored the Credit risk fund underperformance since the category returns are skewed by low base returns on one fund. The fund category that has done well on risk-adjusted returns basis is the long duration funds and the 10-year government security funds. Normally, long duration funds tend to underperform in a rising interest scenario, but these are the ones to outperform in the last one year. 

That is less about returns and more about the low risk entailed in these funds. Among the worst performers on a risk adjusted category were short duration and medium duration funds. Clearly, here again, the issue is not about returns, but about risk. The moral of the story is that in difficult market conditions and challenging macro environment, the outperformers have not been the return chasers but the risk managers.

How Miscellaneous funds rank on risk adjusted returns?

Having seen the risk-adjusted performance of pure equity and pure debt funds, we categorized all other funds into a residual category. This includes the hybrid funds, the passive funds and the commodity funds. 

Morningstar

Category

Category Average

Top Performer

Bottom Performer

Category Range

Range Adjusted Returns

Sector - Precious Metals

13.75

17.43

4.50

12.93

1.0634

Arbitrage Fund

4.48

6.14

1.35

4.79

0.9353

Dynamic Asset Allocation

3.99

14.40

-3.59

17.99

0.2218

Equity Savings

2.48

6.86

-5.31

12.17

0.2038

Conservative Allocation

3.82

21.80

-3.96

25.76

0.1483

Liquid

4.69

46.80

-

46.80

0.1002

Aggressive Allocation

1.29

7.74

-6.09

13.83

0.0933

Balanced Allocation

-1.25

-0.66

-1.89

1.23

-1.0163

Data Source: Morningstar

On risk adjusted terms, the top performer among miscellaneous funds are gold funds. Thanks to the geopolitical risk, gold has been a sought after asset in the last one year and that is evident from the risk-adjusted returns. Arbitrage funds have also been among the top performers, but that is more because the discretionary allocation funds have not done well.

In a sense, the volatile markets have been hardly conducive for any form of discretionary asset allocation. The highly popular Balance Advantage Funds (BAFs) have been among the worst performers in terms of risk-adjusted returns and that explains why investor interest in this category has been waning of late. For the last one year, passive gold ruled the roost.

Did change basis 5 years risk adjusted returns?

All the above risk-adjusted returns analysis have been done on 1-year returns and one can argue that they are vulnerable to short-term moves. Hence we undertook a similar analysis of 5-year risk-adjusted returns. Here are some of the key findings.

  1. We start with equity funds risk-adjusted returns over 5 years on CAGR basis. Again we exclude FMCG as an outlier, so the top performing equity funds over 5 years on risk adjusted returns are ESG funds, technology funds and healthcare funds. Infrastructure, ELSS funds and small cap funds were among the bottom performers over 5 years.

     

  2. How about debt funds over 5-year risk-adjusted returns? Even on a risk adjusted basis, 10-year government bond funds and long duration funds figured in the top-3 categories. The surprise inclusion is floating rate funds. At the bottom of the heap are credit risk funds, dynamic funds and medium duration funds; classic discretionary risks.

     

  3. How did the other categories perform over 5 years. Once again, gold funds are on the top, with allocation funds doing a lot better over a 5 year period. Liquid funds are at the bottom, not due to low returns but due to high risk.

Risks adjusted analysis of fund categories always have an interesting story to tell. If not anything else, it underlines the importance of focusing more on asset allocation and less on fund selection.

Related Tags

  • funds
  • MF
  • MFs
  • mutual fund
  • mutual funds
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