How did Nifty stocks perform in the last one year?

23 Nov 2023 , 03:38 PM

How do you answer the question, “Bazaar kevu laage chhe”

If you are involved in the stock markets, you would be familiar with the standard market question, “Bazaar kevu laage chhe.” It is a colloquial stock market question, meaning how does the market look. Obviously, the stock market is an abstract so this question is typically about the stock market indices; the Nifty and the Sensex. If the Nifty is up, then the market is good and vice versa. However, that can be a rather skewed view of the market.

So, what do we do? We go a little beyond that and look at the performance of individual stocks that comprise the Nifty index. Now we are talking about 50 stocks, so that is a sizable number to decipher a trend in the markets. We look at these stock based on four key parameters. Firstly, we look at how the Nifty stocks rank in terms of monthly returns for a short term momentum picture. Secondly, we look at the Nifty stocks in terms of the returns they generated over a 1-year period to get a longer term perspective. Thirdly, we look at how far are these Nifty stocks from the 52-week high prices. Fourthly, we look at how much they have bounced from the 52-week lows.

How Nifty stocks fared in terms of 1-month returns

Let us begin with the stocks in the Nifty that have generated the best returns. We will look at the top 10 stocks but before that, let us take a small detour and look at some macro numbers on 1-month returns. The Nifty overall has generated returns of 2.75% over the last one month. However, that is just the statistical average of these 50 stocks. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, a total of 44 stocks have generated positive returns in the last one month while only 6 stocks have given negative returns in the last one month. 

The best index stock return in the last one month was BPCL Ltd at 17.30%, while the worst performance came from Bajaj Finance, which fell -8.60% in the last one month. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, a total of 3 stocks have generated double digit returns (>= 10%) in the last 1 month. A total of 20 stocks generated returns of between 5% and 10% in the last one month while 5 stocks generated returns less than 1%, yet positive returns, in last 1 month.

Company	CMP (Rs)	1-Month Returns (%)	1-Year Returns (%)
BPCL	403.60	17.30	31.04
APOLLOHOSP	5,483.05	11.32	23.76
EICHERMOT	3,898.60	11.24	13.59
HINDALCO	496.95	9.54	16.16
COALINDIA	332.40	8.51	44.98
HEROMOTOCO	3,539.00	8.37	27.11
HCLTECH	1,327.20	7.52	20.51
CIPLA	1,189.00	7.41	15.16
SUNPHARMA	1,200.45	7.27	19.21
NTPC	252.90	7.23	51.84

Data Source: NSE

The table above has captured the 10 stocks with the best one-month returns (shaded in blue). What are the broad trends we get to see in these stocks? The good news is that there 3 PSU stocks in this list viz., BPCL, Coal India and NTPC. While coal demand and rising output has kept the focus on Coal India, NTPC has gained from its foray into alternate power. The story of BPCL is a mix of its aggressive petchem plans and the improving gross refining margins (GRMs). Needless to say, all three have been attractive dividend yield plays too.

Among the others, Eicher Motors and Hero Moto stand out as the outperforming auto stocks in the last one month. Robust auto demand, festival demand revival and controlled costs have worked in favour of auto stocks. Surprisingly, there are 3 healthcare stocks viz. Apollo Healthcare, Cipla and Sun Pharma. While Cipla is more on the stake sale plans; the story of Apollo Healthcare is about rerating of the hospitals business while Sun Pharma is gaining from its focus on specialized generics. A special word of mention is due to HCL Tech, being the only tech company to be among the top monthly gainers, at a time when headwinds against IT are pretty aggressive in the market. Let us now turn to the stock that ranked at the bottom in terms of one-month returns, as captured in the table below.

Company	CMP (Rs)	1-Month Returns (%)	1-Year Returns (%)
BAJFINANCE	7,129.75	-8.60	6.63
ADANIENT	2,164.85	-5.89	-46.14
UPL	568.50	-3.55	-26.39
M&M	1,543.05	-1.39	25.64
ICICIBANK	920.00	-0.77	-0.10
MARUTI	10,451.50	-0.56	18.27
KOTAKBANK	1,738.90	0.28	-10.01
HDFCBANK	1,517.90	0.43	-5.17
NESTLEIND	24,479.40	0.63	24.15
BAJAJFINSV	1,628.35	0.67	-1.18

Data Source: NSE

Which are the worst performers in terms of one-month returns? There are five financial stocks in this list. The 3 banks and 2 NBFCs have been badly hit in recent days after the RBI decided to hike the risk weight for consumer loans from 100% to 125% capital adequacy. Back of the envelope calculations tell us that the impact on the cost of funds would be 75 bps to 100 bps for these financials in the consumer loans business and that would have to be passed on to the end customer. That has exerted most of the pressure on monthly returns. The others are more specific cases where rural demand and agricultural output in the Kharif and Rabi season have been key concerns.

How Nifty stocks fared in terms of 1-year returns

Let us begin with the stocks in the Nifty that have generated the best returns over the last one year to get a slightly longer term perspective. We will look at the top 10 stocks but before that, let us take a small detour and look at some macro numbers on 1-year returns. The Nifty overall has generated returns of 8.59% over the last one year. However, that is just the statistical average of Nifty 50 stocks. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, a total of 38 stocks have generated positive returns in the last one year while only 11 stocks have given negative returns in the last one month. 

That only adds up to 49 stocks. That is because, we have left out LTIM, which was only added recently after the exit of HDFC Ltd from the Nifty. We do yet have a 1-year track record of LTIM in the Nifty. The best index stock return in the last one month was Tata Motors Ltd at 60.40%, while the worst performance came from Adani Enterprises, which fell -46.14% in the last one year. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, a total of 32 stocks have generated double digit returns (>= 10%) in the last 1 year. A total of 3 stocks generated returns of between 5% and 10% in the last one year while 2 stocks generated returns of less than 1%, yet positive returns, in the last one year.

Company	CMP (Rs)	1-Month Returns (%)	1-Year Returns (%)
TATAMOTORS	680.55	5.23	60.40
BAJAJ-AUTO	5,915.00	6.40	58.92
LT	3,059.35	4.19	51.85
NTPC	252.90	7.23	51.84
COALINDIA	332.40	8.51	44.98
ONGC	190.05	3.33	41.27
TITAN	3,426.75	6.53	31.60
BPCL	403.60	17.30	31.04
DRREDDY	5,650.60	2.03	29.85
ITC	438.65	0.87	29.23

Data Source: NSE

What are the trends we decipher from the top 10 stocks in this 1-year returns (shaded in blue) list? Believe it or not, there are once again 4 PSU stocks in this list based on 1 year returns viz., NTPC, Coal India, ONGC and BPCL. There is a strong representation of automobiles and FMCG with companies like Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Titan, and ITC figuring in the top yearly gainers list. In all these cases, the story was about revival in consumer demand; especially rural demand. ITC generated most of its returns in the first half of 2023, but has largely been quiet after that. Larsen & Toubro has been a big gainer in the year thanks to overflowing order book situation, strong government investments in infrastructure, global order flows and also L&T’s foray into defence sector, which has been one of the big drivers of growth. Let us also turn to the worse performers in the last one year, based on pure returns.

Company	CMP (Rs)	1-Month Returns (%)	1-Year Returns (%)
ADANIENT	2,164.85	-5.89	-46.14
UPL	568.50	-3.55	-26.39
ADANIPORTS	792.65	2.65	-10.26
KOTAKBANK	1,738.90	0.28	-10.01
INFY	1,459.50	3.49	-8.03
RELIANCE	2,393.50	5.52	-6.89
SBIN	561.10	1.09	-6.70
HDFCBANK	1,517.90	0.43	-5.17
POWERGRID	210.10	5.93	-2.85
BAJAJFINSV	1,628.35	0.67	-1.18

Data Source: NSE

There are not too many surprises in this list. Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports figure int eh list of worst performers in the last one year. That is not surprising considering the kind of value destruction that these stocks after the Hindenburg saga. Most of the Adani group stocks recovered more than 100% from the lows, but the fall was so intense, that the pressure still continues. There are several banks also in this list. Even before the latest announcement by the RBI on increase in credit weight for consumer loans, there have been concerns that bank NIIs and NIMs may have peaked out. While Infosys is in the list due to pressure on margins and weak guidance, Reliance in this list is not a fair picture since, this fall represents the value depletion due to the hiving of the Jio Financial business.

Nifty stocks trading nearest to their 52-week highs

Another way to look at the markets is how far the stocks are from their 52-week highs and that is captured in the table below. At a macro level, the Nifty index at 19,807 is just about 2.06% away from its 52-week high of 20,222. The good news is that 38 out of the Nifty 50 stocks are less than 10% away from their 52-week highs, which clearly shows which way the wind of the market is blowing. The list below shows the stocks that are closest to their 52-week highs. 

Company	CMP (Rs)	52-week High (%)	Distance from 52-week high (%)
EICHERMOT	3,898.60	3,910.00	0.29%
HEROMOTOCO	3,539.00	3,552.65	0.38%
TITAN	3,426.75	3,441.95	0.44%
BHARTIARTL	971.95	976.35	0.45%
BAJAJ-AUTO	5,915.00	5,945.00	0.50%
HCLTECH	1,327.20	1,336.00	0.66%
BPCL	403.60	407.10	0.86%
TATAMOTORS	680.55	687.65	1.03%
NESTLEIND	24,479.40	24,745.00	1.07%
NTPC	252.90	255.70	1.10%
TATACONSUM	929.85	940.85	1.17%
SUNPHARMA	1,200.45	1,214.80	1.18%
LTIM	5,560.50	5,637.65	1.37%
SBILIFE	1,414.75	1,438.55	1.65%
LT	3,059.35	3,115.45	1.80%

Data Source: NSE

The 15 stocks above are less than 2% away from their 52-week highs and that list has a fairly generous sprinkling of stocks from the automobile space, PSUs, FMCG; with smaller representation from IT, pharma, and of course L&T group stocks. We now turn to the list of stocks that are farthest from their 52-week highs.

Company	CMP (Rs)	52-week High (%)	Distance from 52-week high (%)
ADANIENT	2,164.85	4,190.00	48.33%
UPL	568.50	807.00	29.55%
RELIANCE	2,393.50	2,856.00	16.19%
KOTAKBANK	1,738.90	2,064.40	15.77%
HDFCBANK	1,517.90	1,757.50	13.63%
ADANIPORTS	792.65	912.00	13.09%
BAJFINANCE	7,129.75	8,192.00	12.97%
INFY	1,459.50	1,672.60	12.74%
ITC	438.65	499.70	12.22%
ASIANPAINT	3,139.15	3,568.00	12.02%
BRITANNIA	4,682.45	5,270.35	11.15%
SBIN	561.10	629.55	10.87%
WIPRO	402.70	443.75	9.25%
HINDUNILVR	2,516.05	2,769.65	9.16%
ICICIBANK	920.00	1,008.70	8.79%

Data Source: NSE

Of course, there are the standard suspects in the above list of stocks that are still far away from their 52-week highs. Five of 15 stocks farthest from the 52-week highs are financials, which is not surprising considering the several negative surprises. Surprisingly, there are also FMCG stocks int his list, apart from the standard IT sector suspects like Infosys and Wipro. We finally turn to stocks on their bounce from the 52-week lows.

Nifty stocks versus their 52-week lows

Finally, we focus on the stocks that have shown the best bounce from the 52-week lows. The stocks that have jumped the most from their 52-week lows are captured in the table below. At a macro level, the Nifty index at 19,807 has bounced 17.70% from the 52-week low of 16,828. The good news is that 38 out of the Nifty 50 stocks have bounced more than 20% from their 52-week lows, which clearly shows which way the wind of the market is blowing in terms of market resilience. The list below shows the stocks that have shown the best bounce from their 52-week lows.

Company	CMP (Rs)	52-week Low (%)	Distance from 52-week Low (%)
ADANIENT	2,164.85	1,017.45	112.77%
ADANIPORTS	792.65	395.10	100.62%
TATAMOTORS	680.55	375.20	81.38%
BAJAJ-AUTO	5,915.00	3,520.05	68.04%
COALINDIA	332.40	207.60	60.12%
HEROMOTOCO	3,539.00	2,246.00	57.57%
NTPC	252.90	161.90	56.21%
LT	3,059.35	2,018.00	51.60%
TITAN	3,426.75	2,269.60	50.98%
INDUSINDBK	1,493.10	990.00	50.82%
HDFCLIFE	669.60	457.80	46.26%
ONGC	190.05	132.90	43.00%
CIPLA	1,189.00	852.00	39.55%
EICHERMOT	3,898.60	2,836.00	37.47%
M&M	1,543.05	1,123.40	37.36%

Data Source: NSE

Many in the above list are also the stocks that have been among the top gainers in the Nifty in the last one year and belong to sectors like auto and FMCG, apart from themes like PSU and Adani group stocks. Finally let us turn to the stocks that are still pretty close to their lows. That is captured in the table below.

Company	CMP (Rs)	52-week Low (%)	Distance from 52-week Low (%)
HDFCBANK	1,517.90	1,460.25	3.95%
HINDUNILVR	2,516.05	2,393.00	5.14%
KOTAKBANK	1,738.90	1,643.50	5.80%
UPL	568.50	528.15	7.64%
RELIANCE	2,393.50	2,180.00	9.79%
SBIN	561.10	499.35	12.37%
BRITANNIA	4,682.45	4,107.60	13.99%
WIPRO	402.70	352.00	14.40%
TCS	3,521.90	3,070.25	14.71%
ICICIBANK	920.00	796.00	15.58%
ASIANPAINT	3,139.15	2,685.85	16.88%
JSWSTEEL	771.90	649.05	18.93%
AXISBANK	999.40	814.30	22.73%
INFY	1,459.50	1,185.30	23.13%
TECHM	1,212.05	981.05	23.55%

Data Source: NSE

We will focus on the 5 stocks that have bounced less than 10% from their lows. Again, we would leave out Reliance, as it is due to the corporate restructuring of hiving off Jio Financial. Among others, UPL and Kotak Bank were subdued due to major top level changes. Hindustan Unilever has been struggling under the weight of weak rural demand. The one heavyweight that is really close to its lows is HDFC Bank, which is due to concerns that the merged entity (post HDFC Ltd merger) is likely to hit the margins quite sharply. 

Clearly, the Nifty story is not as simple and straightforward as it looks. The nuanced story is about how disparate groups of stocks have diverged in performance; even as Nifty 50 index overall has been an attractive performer.