Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended April 11, 2025

15 Apr 2025 , 10:58 AM

FPIS BACK TO THEIR SELLING WAYS AGAIN

There was a brief interlude of buying in the last week of March, but then it was back to sell mode after that. After net selling $(1.21) Billion of equities in the first week of April, the FPIs net sold another $(2.47) Billion of equities in the second week of April 2025. With Thursday being a trading holiday, there were just 4 transacting days in the week. The coming week is again going to be a truncated week with just 3 days of trading, so selling pressure may only intensify. The price of Brent Crude bounced to $64.76/bbl, but the rupee weakened to ₹86.10/$; after Trump announced a 90-day pause in trade tariffs. However, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below the 100 mark, the dollar bears have the upper hand!

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO APRIL 11, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(31,988.60)	413.48	(31,575.12)	(17,477.93)	(49,053.05)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,61,669.06)	13,520.04	(1,48,149.02)	30,565.67	(1,17,583.35)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(18,659.59)	1,558.57	(17,101.02)	3,478.37	(13,622.65)
# – Recent Data is up to April 11, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(13,623) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; and it has worsened since last week. This includes $(17,101) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $3,478 Million of net buying in debt. IPOs are virtually absent since mid-February. However, secondary market outflows have been almost unrelenting in year 2025.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to April 11, 2025, FPIs turned net sellers to the tune  of $(2,470) Million. Here is the week that was.

• The big news this week was the decision by Trump to put the reciprocal tariffs on pause for a period of 90 days. However, the plan is still on. More importantly, the tariffs of 125% continue on China, the biggest trading partner of the US.
• The RBI MPC announced the first monetary policy of FY25; cutting rates by another 25 bps to 6.0% and changing the monetary stance to accommodative. Also, inflation estimates were cut by 20 bps to 4.0% and GDP growth estimates lowered to 6.5%.
• The February 2025 IIP came in sharply lower at 2.86%; compared to 5.21% in January. The fall in IIP came partially from the higher base effect, but the slowing capex and the global trade turmoil also took its toll on most export oriented industries in India.
• The US Fed published the FOMC minutes during the week, with most FOMC members apprehensive about tariffs impacting growth and spiking inflation. The “Stagflation” word was explicitly used for the first time by FOMC members.
• In a rather surprising outcome, the US consumer inflation for March fell sharply by 40 bps to 2.4% with core inflation at 2.8% touching a 4-year low. However, this is not factoring in the higher inflation that is implied in steep tariffs imposed on China.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
17-Mar-25	-857.26	-857.26	-98.44	-98.44
18-Mar-25	-3,707.30	-4,564.56	-427.15	-525.59
19-Mar-25	710.42	-3,854.14	81.97	-443.62
20-Mar-25	-1,031.36	-4,885.50	-119.23	-562.85
21-Mar-25	3,181.57	-1,703.93	368.65	-194.20
24-Mar-25	5,263.22	3,559.29	610.46	416.26
25-Mar-25	6,205.50	9,764.79	722.98	1,139.24
26-Mar-25	5,698.74	15,463.53	664.73	1,803.97
27-Mar-25	2,457.91	17,921.44	286.24	2,090.21
28-Mar-25	8,120.96	26,042.40	946.93	3,037.14
31-Mar-25	0.00	26,042.40	0.00	3,037.14
01-Apr-25	0.00	26,042.40	0.00	3,037.14
02-Apr-25	-6,335.66	19,706.74	-740.31	2,296.83
03-Apr-25	-1,060.32	18,646.42	-123.86	2,172.97
04-Apr-25	-2,958.56	15,687.86	-345.44	1,827.53
07-Apr-25	-3,128.15	12,559.71	-367.03	1,460.50
08-Apr-25	-8,931.15	3,628.56	-1,040.82	419.68
09-Apr-25	-4,673.87	-1,045.31	-544.05	-124.37
10-Apr-25	0.00	-1,045.31	0.00	-124.37
11-Apr-25	-4,487.41	-5,532.72	-518.07	-642.44

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(1,210) Million; net inflows of $3,231 Million; net outflows of $(194) Million, $(604) Million, $(2,835) Million, $(1,253) Million, and $(283) Million. The week to April 11, 2025, saw FPIs net selling in equities to the tune of $(2,470) Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(5,533) Crore or $(642) Million; largely due to the sell-off in the first two weeks of April 2025.

While India consumer inflation and trade data is awaited next week, markets will also brace themselves for the full year GDP data expected by end of May 2025.