Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended April 25, 2025

28 Apr 2025 , 07:33 AM

FPIS TURN NET BUYERS; BUT OUTLOOK STILL CLOUDED

The previous week had seen FPI inflows of $990 Million into equities. The current week saw FPIs build momentum, infusing an imposing $2,040 Million into Indian equities, and were net buyers on all the 5 trading days. The markets opened with a strong flavour, but the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam and the subsequent diplomatic stand-off between India and Pakistan put some pressure on the markets.

The Indian rupee strengthened further to ₹85.37/$ during the week as the dollar index (DXY) stayed under the 100 mark for the third week in succession. Compared to the previous week, the price of Brent Crude was slightly mellowed at $66.87/bbl, but it stayed in the range of $66/bbl to $67/bbl through the week on hopes of revival in growth. However, FPI flows did indicate the return of risk-on investing.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO APRIL 25, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(6,655.33)	977.39	(5,677.94)	(18,225.62)	(23,903.56)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,36,335.79)	14,083.95	(1,22,251.84)	29,817.98	(92,433.86)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(15,695.32)	1,624.45	(14,070.87)	3,387.90	(10,682.97)
# – Recent Data is up to April 25, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Outflows in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a negative note with $(10,683) Million of net selling overall by FPIs; although there was some improvement this week, thanks to equity inflows. This comprised of $(14,071) Million of net selling in equities, offset by $3,388 Million of net buying in debt. IPOs had dried up for 75 days, till the Ather Energy IPO was announced. FPIs turned net sellers in debt to the tune of ₹(18,226) Crore in April 2025 as narrowing yield spreads between the US and India triggered FPI flows out of Indian debt paper.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to April 25, 2025, FPIs turned net buyers to the tune  of $2,040 Million. Here is the week that was.

• Terrorism reared its ugly head in India with the attacks on innocent tourists at Pahalgam in Kashmir. This has created a diplomatic stand-off between India and Pakistan, and that was an overhang for markets in the latter part of the week.
• Core sector growth for March 2025 came in at 3.83%, with FY25 full year core sector growth at 4.4%. This is sharply lower than the average of the last 3 years. Oil and natural gas output was under pressure, while steel, cement and electricity saw robust output.
• RBI published the MPC minutes of the monetary policy this week, with the broad view being that inflation would stay anchored around 4%. The MPC minutes strongly hinted at the possibility of another 25 bps rate cut in June 2025.
• As FMCG results trickled out, bellwethers like Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India hinted at strong top line growth but pressure on margins. Urban demand was a drag, while input costs put pressure on EBITDA margins of FMCG companies.
• IPOs were finally back after a gap of nearly 75 days with the Ather Energy IPO opening on April 28, 2025; albeit at lower-than-anticipated valuations. The anchor allocation prior to the IPO, saw nearly 40% of the overall IPO absorbed by anchors.

Let us turn to the granular FPI flow story in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
31-Mar-25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01-Apr-25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
02-Apr-25	-6,335.66	-6,335.66	-740.31	-740.31
03-Apr-25	-1,060.32	-7,395.98	-123.86	-864.17
04-Apr-25	-2,958.56	-10,354.54	-345.44	-1,209.61
07-Apr-25	-3,128.15	-13,482.69	-367.03	-1,576.64
08-Apr-25	-8,931.15	-22,413.84	-1,040.82	-2,617.46
09-Apr-25	-4,673.87	-27,087.71	-544.05	-3,161.51
10-Apr-25	0.00	-27,087.71	0.00	-3,161.51
11-Apr-25	-4,487.41	-31,575.12	-518.07	-3,679.58
14-Apr-25	0.00	-31,575.12	0.00	-3,679.58
15-Apr-25	-2,351.99	-33,927.11	-273.03	-3,952.61
16-Apr-25	6,798.27	-27,128.84	793.36	-3,159.25
17-Apr-25	4,026.02	-23,102.82	470.07	-2,689.18
18-Apr-25	0.00	-23,102.82	0.00	-2,689.18
21-Apr-25	4,317.31	-18,785.51	504.54	-2,184.64
22-Apr-25	1,749.56	-17,035.95	205.44	-1,979.20
23-Apr-25	1,965.18	-15,070.77	230.92	-1,748.28
24-Apr-25	3,967.25	-11,103.52	464.35	-1,283.93
25-Apr-25	5,425.58	-5,677.94	634.50	-649.43

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $990 Million; net outflows of $(2,470) Million, $(1,210) Million; net inflows of $3,231 Million; net outflows of $(194) Million, $(604) Million, and $(2,835) Million. The week to April 25, 2025, saw FPIs net buying equities to the tune of $2,040 Million.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(5,678) Crore or $(649) Million; although the latest week did see strong equity inflows.

In key data points ahead, IIP growth for March 2025 and FY25 will be announced on 28-Apr, but all eyes will be on the response to the Ather Energy IPO. In other data points, markets will closely track the US Q1GDP first estimate and the US March PCE inflation next week. The longer term data point of interest will be the Q4 GDP data in end of May 2025.