Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended February 14, 2025

17 Feb 2025 , 10:14 AM

FPI REMAIN NET SELLERS FOR TENTH WEEK IN A ROW

The FPI outflows only intensified in the week to February 14, 2025; almost doubling over the previous week. FPIs have now been net sellers to the tune of nearly $11 Billion in the last 6 weeks since the start of January. Once again, the FPIs were net sellers for all the five trading sessions during the week. For now, it looks like the consumer spending oriented Union Budget and the rate cuts in RBI January Policy have done little to boost market sentiments.

In terms of macros, the rupee closed at ₹86.60/$ after the USDINR had scaled to ₹87.6/$ last week on rate cut expectations. Brent Crude hovered around $75/bbl, but FPIs continue to be apprehensive about Trump’s protective trade tactics. It has hit Mexico, Canada, and China the most; but India is also likely to feel the pressure of higher levies on steel and aluminium. The dollar strength has pushed India’s GDP and market cap to below $4 Trillion.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO FEBRUARY 14, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(23,242.26)	1,970.00	(21,272.26)	7,901.86	(13,370.40)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(1,05,145.98)	5,846.78	(99,299.20)	8,357.77	(90,941.43)
For 2025 ($ Million)	(12,159.58)	675.10	(11,484.48)	948.77	(10,535.71)
# – Recent Data is up to February 14, 2025

Data Source: NSDL (Negative figures in brackets)

Year 2025 has begun on a deeply negative note with $(10,536) Million of net selling overall by FPIs. This includes $(11,485) Million of net selling in equities, partially offset by $949 Million of net buying in debt. Secondary market selling in equities has been rampant, while FPI flows into IPOs are still tentative, which is not surprising.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to February 14, 2025, FPIs remained net sellers to the tune  of $(1,601) Million, sharply higher than previous week. Here is the week that was.

• India CPI inflation came in sharply lower at 4.31% in Jan-25 compared to 5.22% last month. The fall in inflation was largely led by lower food inflation, although core inflation was actually higher. RBI has already cut rates by 25 bps on 07-Feb.
• The growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) moderated to 3.22% in December 2024. While mining did better, the pressure was seen on manufacturing. That is not surprising as WPI inflation data saw manufacturing input inflation surging higher.
• US Consumer inflation for January 2025 bounced by another 10 bps to 3.0%. With pressure from the energy and core baskets, the US CPI inflation is a full 100 bps above the long term consumer inflation target of the US Federal Reserve.
• The rate cut expectations as demonstrated by the CME Fedwatch have substantially come down. Post the US inflation data, the expectation is of a 25 bps cut in 2025 and another 25 bps in 2026. That is likely to come as a relief for Indian policymakers.
• Gold closed at its highest in the global spot market at $2920/oz, after touching an all-time high of $2,940/oz. The rupee prices also scaled above ₹88,500/10 grams as Trump tariffs added to global uncertainty. Central banks are also buying gold aggressively.
• In India, the SIP stoppage ratio touched 109% for the first time, leading to depletion in outstanding SIP folio accounts. The SIP redemptions in Jan-25 exceeded the SIP folio additions. FY25 SIP stoppage average is above COVID levels, showing a state of panic.

Let us finally turn to the granular FPI flow story for January and February 2025.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and in dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
20-Jan-25	-3,627.11	-3,627.11	-418.91	-418.91
21-Jan-25	-3,724.79	-7,351.90	-430.38	-849.29
22-Jan-25	-6,327.90	-13,679.80	-731.43	-1,580.72
23-Jan-25	-3,018.05	-16,697.85	-348.64	-1,929.36
24-Jan-25	-3,061.48	-19,759.33	-354.09	-2,283.45
27-Jan-25	-2,866.30	-22,625.63	-332.17	-2,615.62
28-Jan-25	-4,514.16	-27,139.79	-522.36	-3,137.98
29-Jan-25	-2,940.87	-30,080.66	-339.84	-3,477.82
30-Jan-25	-1,796.22	-31,876.88	-207.47	-3,685.29
31-Jan-25	-1,753.84	-33,630.72	-202.56	-3,887.85
03-Feb-25	-1.32	-33,632.04	-0.15	-3,888.00
04-Feb-25	-3,628.00	-37,260.04	-416.46	-4,304.46
05-Feb-25	1,029.43	-36,230.61	118.16	-4,186.30
06-Feb-25	-1,147.53	-37,378.14	-131.56	-4,317.86
07-Feb-25	-3,594.36	-40,972.50	-410.50	-4,728.36
10-Feb-25	-472.69	-41,445.19	-54.04	-4,782.40
11-Feb-25	-2,297.12	-43,742.31	-262.27	-5,044.67
12-Feb-25	-4,089.26	-47,831.57	-470.65	-5,515.32
13-Feb-25	-4,875.81	-52,707.38	-561.43	-6,076.75
14-Feb-25	-2,195.60	-54,902.98	-252.71	-6,329.46

Data Source: NSDL

• In last 7 rolling weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(841) Million, $(1,604) Million, $(2,283) Million, $(2,568) Million, $(2086) Million, $(645) Million, and $(600) Million. In the week to February 14, 2025, net FPI equity outflows stood at $(1,601) Million.
• If you look at the last 4 rolling weeks on a cumulative basis, total net FPI outflows from equities were to the tune ₹(54,903) Crore or $(6,329) Million; with the broad trend still veering towards FPI sell-off.

Most of the macro data for the week is out of the way. Next week, the point of interest will be the RBI MPC minutes and the Fed meeting minutes. The crucial data will be the Q3FY25 GDP and the second estimate of FY25 annual GDP; to be released on February 28, 2025.