Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended December 20, 2024

23 Dec 2024 , 10:28 AM

A WEEK OF FRENETIC SELL-OFF IN THE MARKETS

To be fair, the FPIs were not aggressive sellers in the week; being net sellers to the tune of just about $114 Million. However, it was the absence of buying interest that roiled the markets and pushed the Nifty and Sensex down by nearly 5%. The trigger for the correction came from the record merchandise trade deficit reported by DGFT at the start of the week. The market sentiments further soured after the Fed policy statement guided for just 2 more rate cuts in 2025. Also, the cautious stance of the RBI MPC minutes imply that rate cuts are now almost unlikely even in the February 2025 MPC meeting.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – THREE 1,000 POINT KNOCKS IN THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	79,335.48	79,587.15	77,874.59	78,041.59
19-Dec-24	79,029.03	79,516.17	79,020.08	79,218.05
18-Dec-24	80,666.26	80,868.02	80,050.07	80,182.20
17-Dec-24	81,511.81	81,613.64	80,612.20	80,684.45
16-Dec-24	82,000.31	82,116.44	81,551.28	81,748.57
13-Dec-24	81,212.45	82,213.92	80,082.82	82,133.12
		Weekly Returns		-4.98%

Data Source: BSE

For the week, the Sensex plummeted -4,092 points or -4.98%, making it the worst week in the last 2 years. With modest FPI outflows of just $114 Million, the markets fell more due to lack of buying. For the week, Sensex touched a high of 82,116 and a low of 77,875; marking sharply lower highs and lower lows for the week.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – LACK OF BUYING PULLS NIFTY DOWN

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	23,960.70	24,065.80	23,537.35	23,587.50
19-Dec-24	23,877.15	24,004.90	23,870.30	23,951.70
18-Dec-24	24,297.95	24,394.45	24,149.85	24,198.85
17-Dec-24	24,584.80	24,624.10	24,303.45	24,336.00
16-Dec-24	24,753.40	24,781.25	24,601.75	24,668.25
13-Dec-24	24,498.35	24,792.30	24,180.80	24,768.30
		Weekly Returns		-4.77%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty fell -1,181 points or -4.77%; amidst absence of fresh buying. For the week, Nifty touched a high of 24,781 and a low of 23,537; marking lower highs and lower lows for the week.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – NO ALPHA HUNTING IN MID-CAPS

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	58,739.45	58,800.85	56,813.45	56,906.75
19-Dec-24	57,724.80	58,607.30	57,649.30	58,556.25
18-Dec-24	59,094.20	59,119.00	58,447.20	58,723.25
17-Dec-24	59,458.20	59,654.95	59,023.05	59,101.90
16-Dec-24	59,144.55	59,483.20	59,122.80	59,443.05
13-Dec-24	58,877.50	59,024.40	58,012.10	58,991.55
		Weekly Returns		-3.53%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Mid Cap 100 fell by -2,085 points or -3.53%; less than the frontline indices. Absence of buying was visible in mid-cap stocks also. For the week, the Nifty Mid-cap touched a high of 59,655 and a low of 56,813 levels.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – SELL SIDE STORY CONTIUES

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	19,201.40	19,241.95	18,672.60	18,714.30
19-Dec-24	18,861.05	19,163.60	18,856.55	19,133.10
18-Dec-24	19,410.45	19,443.45	19,164.20	19,230.35
17-Dec-24	19,563.15	19,598.35	19,371.10	19,398.45
16-Dec-24	19,435.60	19,575.50	19,430.40	19,531.05
13-Dec-24	19,425.00	19,439.35	19,047.85	19,407.30
		Weekly Returns		-3.57%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Small Cap 100 fell by -693 points or -3.57%; less than frontline indices. Most investors and traders stayed away from small caps in a volatile week. For the week, the Nifty Small-cap touched a high of 19,598 and a low of 18,673 levels.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – TAKES IT ON THE CHIN

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	51,401.35	51,629.00	50,609.35	50,759.20
19-Dec-24	51,428.45	51,789.85	51,263.75	51,575.70
18-Dec-24	52,696.95	52,827.60	52,010.65	52,139.55
17-Dec-24	53,394.10	53,515.70	52,709.40	52,834.80
16-Dec-24	53,502.50	53,738.90	53,335.00	53,581.35
13-Dec-24	53,109.80	53,654.00	52,264.55	53,583.80
		Weekly Returns		-5.27%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Bank fell by -3,005 points or -5.27%; at par with the Nifty. The narrowing yield spread between India and the US is spooking banks. For the week, the Bank Nifty touched a high of 53,739 and a low of 50,609 levels.

NIFTY IT INDEX – NO RESPITE FOR DOLLAR DEFENSIVES TOO

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	45,513.35	45,647.30	43,663.05	43,771.05
19-Dec-24	44,493.45	45,265.95	44,434.10	44,954.15
18-Dec-24	45,293.05	45,693.00	45,237.30	45,526.85
17-Dec-24	45,576.15	45,759.65	45,213.85	45,413.75
16-Dec-24	45,937.10	46,005.20	45,536.85	45,653.60
13-Dec-24	45,496.95	46,088.90	45,073.50	45,995.80
		Weekly Returns		-4.84%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty IT Index fell by -2,225 points or -4.84%. It appeared like even the dollar defensive argument did not favour the IT stocks. For the week, the Nifty IT Index touched a high of 46,005 and a low of 43,663 levels.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – GEOPOLITICAL RISK SUSTAINS THE PRESSURE

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	10,769.50	10,892.85	10,583.10	10,607.60
19-Dec-24	10,651.85	10,854.80	10,637.85	10,785.15
18-Dec-24	10,883.55	10,927.25	10,788.95	10,824.45
17-Dec-24	11,076.90	11,088.00	10,898.45	10,916.20
16-Dec-24	11,165.55	11,190.35	11,061.65	11,095.30
13-Dec-24	11,125.25	11,186.00	10,944.35	11,160.30
		Weekly Returns		-4.95%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index fell by -553 points or -4.95%. The volatility in oil prices due to the West Asia crisis proved to be an overhang. For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index touched a high of 11,190 and a low of 10,583 levels.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – RATE SENSITIVE SELL-OFF VISIBLE IN AUTOS

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	23,070.45	23,236.60	22,531.65	22,580.00
19-Dec-24	22,911.75	23,166.65	22,862.40	23,070.90
18-Dec-24	23,319.60	23,423.55	23,208.60	23,241.25
17-Dec-24	23,705.10	23,834.00	23,361.65	23,417.80
16-Dec-24	23,805.05	23,823.35	23,628.25	23,790.50
13-Dec-24	23,617.75	23,803.75	23,292.10	23,773.10
		Weekly Returns		-5.02%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Auto Index fell by -1,193 points or -5.02%; as a dull festive season was an overhang. High cost of ownership also weighed on auto stocks. For the week, the Nifty Auto Index touched a high of 23,834 and a low of 22,532 levels.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – URBAN DEMAND AND MARGIN CONCERNS

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to December 20, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
20-Dec-24	56,151.85	56,309.70	55,472.45	55,600.80
19-Dec-24	56,145.95	56,570.60	56,042.65	56,157.90
18-Dec-24	56,578.35	56,685.60	56,277.25	56,467.80
17-Dec-24	56,625.45	56,842.10	56,205.00	56,467.45
16-Dec-24	56,946.00	57,062.55	56,517.45	56,697.20
13-Dec-24	56,088.70	56,997.45	55,455.15	56,869.40
		Weekly Returns		-2.23%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the fall in Nifty FMCG index was subdued at -1,269 points or -2.23%; less  than the other indices. Weak urban demand has been an overhang. For the week, the Nifty FMCG Index touched a high of 57,063 and a low of 55,472 levels.