Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended January 10, 2025

13 Jan 2025 , 09:53 AM

INDICES HOLD UP, DESPITE FPI SELLING

The week saw FPI selling of $645 Million, on top of the $600 Million of selling in the previous week. However, the Nifty and the Sensex managed to close in the green. Interestingly, the banking stocks came in for a bit of selling in the week, especially after CLSA dropped HDFC Bank from their India buy list. However, this was more than compensated by the rally in consumer good stocks in Autos and FMCG. Surprisingly, even oil stocks (led by Reliance Industries) did fairly well during the week, leading to most indices, other than Bank Nifty, rallying sharply during the week. The VIX has not fallen but steady in the 13-14 range. In terms of data flows, core sector data was positive at 4.5% growth, but the markets were concerned about tepid progress on capex spending during FY25.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – HIT BY ALL-ROUND SELLING IN THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	77,682.59	77,919.70	77,099.55	77,378.91
09-Jan-25	78,206.21	78,206.21	77,542.92	77,620.21
08-Jan-25	78,319.45	78,319.45	77,486.79	78,148.49
07-Jan-25	78,019.80	78,452.74	77,925.09	78,199.11
06-Jan-25	79,281.65	79,532.67	77,781.62	77,964.99
03-Jan-25	80,072.99	80,072.99	79,109.73	79,223.11
		Weekly Returns		-2.33%

Data Source: BSE

For the week, the Sensex cracked by -1844 points or -2.33%, reversing two weeks of gains on the Sensex. The new year allocations are yet to happen, but it looks like FPIs will wait for more data confirmation before taking a call. For the week, Sensex touched a high of 79,533 and a low of 77,920; with 80,000 clearly acting as the resistance for the BSE Sensex.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – IT SAVES THE BLUSHES, BUT NOT ENOUGH

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	23,551.90	23,596.60	23,344.35	23,431.50
09-Jan-25	23,674.75	23,689.50	23,503.05	23,526.50
08-Jan-25	23,746.65	23,751.85	23,496.15	23,688.95
07-Jan-25	23,679.90	23,795.20	23,637.80	23,707.90
06-Jan-25	24,045.80	24,089.95	23,551.90	23,616.05
03-Jan-25	24,196.40	24,196.45	23,976.00	24,004.75
		Weekly Returns		-2.39%

Data Source: NSE

Like in the case of Sensex, the Nifty slipped below crucial support levels in the week. For the week, the Nifty fell 573 points or -2.39%; as all sectors other than IT cracked sharply. For the week, Nifty touched a high of 24,090 and a low of 23,344, with the VIX once again rising sharply in the week to 14.92 levels.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – DOUBLE WHAMMY IN THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	55,658.15	55,736.50	54,526.25	54,585.75
09-Jan-25	56,332.25	56,455.85	55,669.05	55,745.90
08-Jan-25	56,994.50	57,007.05	55,667.30	56,270.60
07-Jan-25	56,512.40	57,116.60	56,500.00	56,869.30
06-Jan-25	58,096.40	58,117.10	56,187.80	56,366.95
03-Jan-25	58,211.35	58,393.80	57,858.25	57,931.05
		Weekly Returns		-5.77%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Mid Cap 100 plunged by 3,345 points or -5.77%; much more than the frontline indices. The selling was triggered by the spike in oil prices and the weak rupee; both of which hit smaller stocks a lot harder. For the week, Nifty Mid-cap touched a high of 58,117 and a low of 54,526.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – PLUMMETS OVER 7% FOR THE WEEK

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	18,100.50	18,115.05	17,628.95	17,645.55
09-Jan-25	18,366.30	18,395.20	18,096.05	18,118.35
08-Jan-25	18,714.10	18,730.35	18,238.60	18,365.65
07-Jan-25	18,462.00	18,698.90	18,459.75	18,673.45
06-Jan-25	19,096.80	19,114.30	18,385.70	18,425.25
03-Jan-25	19,120.35	19,224.95	19,009.45	19,033.70
		Weekly Returns		-7.29%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Small Cap 100 plummeted by 1,388 points or -7.29%; ending up the worst performer among indices. Apart from dollar defensive IT, all other sectors fell during the week. For the week, the Nifty Small-cap touched a high of 19,114 and a low of 17,629.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – YIELD SPIKE PUTS PRESSURE ON BANKS

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	49,426.50	49,483.15	48,631.20	48,734.15
09-Jan-25	49,712.55	49,798.10	49,230.15	49,503.50
08-Jan-25	50,201.75	50,246.90	49,389.75	49,835.05
07-Jan-25	50,061.20	50,447.60	49,969.30	50,202.15
06-Jan-25	50,990.65	51,026.10	49,751.00	49,922.00
03-Jan-25	51,567.15	51,671.60	50,904.35	50,988.80
		Weekly Returns		-4.42%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Bank fell by -2,255 points or -4.42%; led by a sharp fall in PSU banks. There are key concerns over the rising yields on bonds as well as the risk of narrowing net interest margins (NIMs) of banking companies. For the week, the Bank Nifty touched a high of 51,026 and a low of 48,631.

NIFTY IT INDEX – ONLY SAVING GRACE FOR THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	43,731.50	44,798.65	43,731.50	44,609.50
09-Jan-25	43,606.30	43,838.65	43,032.45	43,126.45
08-Jan-25	43,333.90	43,725.95	42,735.55	43,634.25
07-Jan-25	43,836.35	44,112.05	43,293.65	43,375.85
06-Jan-25	43,961.65	44,331.10	43,401.70	43,674.85
03-Jan-25	44,334.15	44,337.15	43,554.95	43,726.55
		Weekly Returns		+2.02%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty IT Index surged by 883 points or +2.02%. Despite TCS results coming in slightly below street estimates, the rising TCV and improved tech spending are major positives for IT stocks. IT Index touched a high of 44,799 and a low of 42,736 levels.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – RELIANCE COMES UNDER PRESSURE

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	10,887.85	10,908.50	10,670.85	10,740.60
09-Jan-25	11,081.25	11,087.90	10,830.95	10,855.75
08-Jan-25	10,966.00	11,123.50	10,944.70	11,070.35
07-Jan-25	10,801.25	10,963.50	10,797.80	10,902.80
06-Jan-25	11,059.20	11,064.25	10,703.45	10,726.90
03-Jan-25	10,940.10	11,153.45	10,922.20	11,046.65
		Weekly Returns		-2.77%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index fell by -306 points or -2.77%. Reliance once again came under pressure ahead of the Q3FY25 results and that pressure the index. For the week, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index touched a high of 11,124 and a low of 10,671 levels.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – DEMAND CONCERNS INTENSIFY IN THE WEEK

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	23,262.30	23,345.85	22,896.05	23,017.75
09-Jan-25	23,457.45	23,552.75	23,240.00	23,305.20
08-Jan-25	23,543.90	23,549.65	23,191.60	23,370.15
07-Jan-25	23,513.95	23,634.35	23,426.00	23,482.10
06-Jan-25	24,087.45	24,169.70	23,365.60	23,482.20
03-Jan-25	24,058.95	24,173.25	23,899.75	24,005.00
		Weekly Returns		-4.11%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, the Nifty Auto Index corrected by -987 points or -4.11%; after latest numbers again expressed concerns over the offtake of PVs at a retail demand level. For the week, the Nifty Auto Index touched a high of 24,170 and a low of 22,896 levels.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – HAS A MORE SUBDUED WEEK

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to January 10, 2025.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
10-Jan-25	57,449.90	57,607.55	56,936.60	57,117.70
09-Jan-25	56,953.80	58,238.10	56,764.50	57,495.60
08-Jan-25	56,831.25	57,087.60	56,158.40	56,967.60
07-Jan-25	56,852.25	57,126.60	56,667.85	56,719.55
06-Jan-25	57,837.30	57,853.25	56,547.75	56,714.40
03-Jan-25	57,903.05	57,923.50	57,410.05	57,817.00
		Weekly Returns		-1.21%

Data Source: NSE

For the week, there was a subdued fall in the FMCG index of -1.21%. Most FMCG stocks are now reasonably priced and the tax cut hopes may come as the manna from heaven. For the week, the Nifty FMCG Index touched a high of 58,238 and a low of 56,158 levels; holding up in the week, despite a tepid demand outlook.