Weekly Musings – Index performance for week ended November 22, 2024

25 Nov 2024 , 11:11 AM

FRONTLINE INDICES GAIN FROM THE FRIDAY EFFECT

The first 3 trading sessions of the week did not offer any clue as to what would happen on Friday. It was a truncated week with Wednesday being a trading holiday on account of Maharashtra assembly elections. By Thursday, it look like another week of losses for the Nifty and Sensex. However, the entire tone of the markets changed on Friday. The Nifty gained over 550 points on Friday while the Sensex rallied by nearly 2,000 points. The net result was that all the sectors (except oil & gas) closed comfortably in the positive. Whether this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the Nifty or otherwise, is something we have to find out, but there were two clear reasons for the rally in the Nifty and the Sensex.

The first reason was that the Adani related concerns abated on Friday after the senior management came in a denied all the bribery allegations. That helped improve the sentiments in the markets as a whole. Secondly, the markets started to reconcile to the expectation that the ruling Mahayuti (which includes the NDA) will sweep the Maharashtra polls. That was the one factor that actually changed the undertone of the market. Also, none of the large institutions or traders wanted to be stay short over the weekend, with the Maharashtra election counting over the weekend. That has clearly been ratified if you look at the actual numbers on Saturday.

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX – THANK GOD IT WAS FRIDAY

The table captures the movement of the BSE SENSEX 30 for the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	77,349.74	79,218.19	77,226.69	79,117.11
21-Nov-24	77,711.11	77,711.11	76,802.73	77,155.79
20-Nov-24	77,548.00	78,451.65	77,411.31	77,578.38
19-Nov-24	77,548.00	78,451.65	77,411.31	77,578.38
18-Nov-24	77,863.54	77,886.97	76,965.06	77,339.01
14-Nov-24	77,636.94	78,055.52	77,424.81	77,580.31
		Weekly Returns		+1.98%

Data Source: BSE

A sharp 2,000 points recovery in the BSE Sensex resulted in a close with 198 basis points gains or 1,537 points for the week. The Sensex was actually down 400 points at the end of Thursday, but Friday changed the tone of the Sensex. During the week, Sensex touched a high of 79,218 and a low of 76,803; closing just short of the psychological level of 80,000.

NIFTY 50 INDEX – GAINING FROM THE FRIDAY EFFECT

The table captures the movement of Nifty 50 index in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	23,411.80	23,956.10	23,359.00	23,907.25
21-Nov-24	23,488.45	23,507.30	23,263.15	23,349.90
20-Nov-24	23,529.55	23,780.65	23,464.80	23,518.50
19-Nov-24	23,529.55	23,780.65	23,464.80	23,518.50
18-Nov-24	23,605.30	23,606.80	23,350.40	23,453.80
14-Nov-24	23,542.15	23,675.90	23,484.15	23,532.70
		Weekly Returns		+1.59%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of smart gains for the Nifty 50 at 159 basis points or 375 points for the week. All sectors were in the positive except for oil & gas which closed in the negative due to confusing signals coming from Ukraine. VIX closed higher for the week at 16.10 levels, but sharply lower from the weekly highs of 18.67 levels. FPI selling was subdued at $388 Million. During the week, the Nifty touched a high of 23,956 and a low of 23,263 levels.

NIFTY MID-CAP 100 INDEX – LATE RECOVERY HELPED MID-CAPS TOO

The table captures the movement of Nifty Mid-Cap 100 in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	54,460.75	55,067.80	54,354.10	55,016.85
21-Nov-24	54,555.60	54,638.10	53,929.80	54,385.35
20-Nov-24	54,269.60	55,082.50	54,265.90	54,548.25
19-Nov-24	54,269.60	55,082.50	54,265.90	54,548.25
18-Nov-24	54,292.00	54,369.50	53,680.20	54,044.80
14-Nov-24	53,875.50	54,471.40	53,870.75	54,043.10
		Weekly Returns		+1.80%

Data Source: NSE

It was a week of late recovery for the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 with gains of 180 basis points or 974 points for the week. There was some pressure from a weak rupee and oil prices were also volatile. During the week, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 touched a high of 55,083 and a low of 53,930.

NIFTY SMALL-CAP 100 INDEX – INVESTORS CAUTIOUS ON SMALL CAPS

The table captures movement of Nifty Small Cap 100 in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	17,652.65	17,797.75	17,564.25	17,755.55
21-Nov-24	17,676.90	17,707.05	17,432.15	17,596.60
20-Nov-24	17,593.90	17,893.05	17,591.60	17,677.35
19-Nov-24	17,593.90	17,893.05	17,591.60	17,677.35
18-Nov-24	17,641.65	17,695.70	17,367.45	17,507.25
14-Nov-24	17,500.70	17,749.15	17,497.10	17,601.05
		Weekly Returns		+0.88%

Data Source: NSE

Nifty Small Cap 100 index gained 88 basis points or 155 points for the week. There was little by way of buying support in the market. This week, the Nifty Small Cap index touched a high of 17,893 levels and a low of 17,367. The small cap index is vulnerable to rupee weakness and oil prices; but alpha interest is missing for now.

BANK NIFTY INDEX – BANKS ARE BACK ON THE RADAR

The table below captures the movement of BANKNIFTY in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	50,512.80	51,271.50	50,508.25	51,135.40
21-Nov-24	50,625.00	50,652.15	49,787.10	50,372.90
20-Nov-24	50,580.55	50,983.50	50,440.85	50,626.50
19-Nov-24	50,580.55	50,983.50	50,440.85	50,626.50
18-Nov-24	50,312.45	50,445.80	50,074.00	50,363.80
14-Nov-24	50,053.45	50,561.80	49,939.35	50,179.55
		Weekly Returns		+1.90%

Data Source: NSE

Several indicators have been showing that banks could lead the next rally in Nifty and Sensex. For the week, Bank Nifty was up 190 basis points or 956 points. Banks had rallied ahead of the Fed policy statement in the previous week; but there are concerns over sustaining NIMs. High cost deposits may see further pressure on NIMs. During the week, Bank Nifty touched a high of 51,272 and a low of 49,787 levels.

NIFTY IT INDEX – STRONG DOLLAR REMAIN THE BIG THEME

The table captures the movement of Nifty IT index in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	42,229.20	43,436.15	41,983.55	43,332.10
21-Nov-24	41,928.90	42,325.85	41,678.20	41,952.80
20-Nov-24	41,534.60	42,447.65	41,534.60	41,748.35
19-Nov-24	41,534.60	42,447.65	41,534.60	41,748.35
18-Nov-24	42,442.85	42,442.85	41,035.40	41,406.55
14-Nov-24	42,318.75	42,633.00	42,162.80	42,390.85
		Weekly Returns		+2.22%

Data Source: NSE

After gaining 5% in the last two weeks, the IT sector gained another 222 basis points or week, or about 956 points. Gains were again focused on the last day. IT sector gained from dollar strength, Trump 2.0, and hopes that tech spending will revive. During the week, Nifty IT index touched a high of 43,436 and low of 41,035 during the previous week.

NIFTY OIL & GAS INDEX – SOLE PRESSURE POINT IN THE PACK

The table captures the Nifty Oil & Gas index for the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	10,490.15	10,703.15	10,460.85	10,677.05
21-Nov-24	10,547.75	10,569.50	10,340.60	10,446.45
20-Nov-24	10,691.45	10,846.60	10,572.00	10,602.95
19-Nov-24	10,691.45	10,846.60	10,572.00	10,602.95
18-Nov-24	10,780.05	10,805.20	10,572.80	10,637.15
14-Nov-24	10,827.50	10,876.15	10,749.20	10,810.30
		Weekly Returns		-1.23%

Data Source: NSE

With weak GRMs and Reliance stock continued to put pressure on the oil & gas index for the latest week also. This week, the oil & gas index closed with losses of -123 basis points or -133 points on the index. While RIL has fallen more than 18% from the peaks; there are also concerns surrounding the slowdown in retail business as well as the negative subscriber growth in Jio Telecom. For the week to November 22, 2024, the Oil & Gas index touched a high of 10,847 and a low of 10,341.

NIFTY AUTO INDEX – AUTOS COME BACK WITH A BANG

The table captures the movement of Nifty Auto index in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	23,208.80	23,686.35	23,089.05	23,554.10
21-Nov-24	23,321.35	23,328.50	23,072.65	23,145.90
20-Nov-24	23,052.55	23,713.20	23,051.60	23,359.50
19-Nov-24	23,052.55	23,713.20	23,051.60	23,359.50
18-Nov-24	23,044.75	23,261.85	22,854.55	23,043.85
14-Nov-24	22,831.55	23,036.15	22,659.05	22,914.50
		Weekly Returns		+2.79%

Data Source: NSE

Despite concerns over offtake, festive demand, and cost of ownership; the auto sector had a great week on consumption revival hopes. This week the auto index closed 2.79% higher or 639 points up for the week. Auto Index made a weekly high of 23,713 and a low of 23,052; with the investors preferring to bet on the revival in urban consumption.

NIFTY FMCG INDEX – ARE HAPPY DAYS HERE AGAIN?

The table captures the movement of Nifty FMCG index in the week to November 22, 2024.

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
22-Nov-24	55,700.25	57,088.40	55,542.95	56,956.45
21-Nov-24	56,168.90	56,281.95	55,493.25	55,693.70
20-Nov-24	56,554.75	57,012.90	56,268.50	56,378.55
19-Nov-24	56,554.75	57,012.90	56,268.50	56,378.55
18-Nov-24	56,029.50	56,420.95	55,546.45	56,314.35
14-Nov-24	56,634.75	56,774.05	55,689.20	55,782.70
		Weekly Returns		+2.10%

Data Source: NSE

FMCG has already seen an intriguing rise and an equally intriguing fall in recent weeks. For the week, the FMCG index was up 210% or 1,175 points on the index. The urban demand narrative is working in favour of FMCG. During the week, the FMCG Index touched a high of 57,088 and a low of 55,793. Q2FY25 saw FMCG stocks stressed, across the board; but the worst may already be in the price.