Dollar weakens marginally

20 Jun 2024 , 09:34 AM

The dollar fell on Wednesday after dismal U.S. retail sales data bolstered expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate reduction. Sterling dipped slightly ahead of a reading on UK inflation later in the day.

Figures released on Tuesday indicated that U.S. retail sales barely climbed in May, and data for the previous month was revised significantly lower, implying that economic activity remained weak in the second quarter.

The greenback fell in the immediate aftermath, but its losses were limited against a basket of currencies, as the euro, which has the highest weight in the dollar index, is pulled down by political concerns in France and the rest of the bloc.

The euro was last slightly down at $1.0738, while the dollar index remained stable at 105.28.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with approximately 48 basis points of cuts priced in for the remainder of the year.

Sterling slipped 0.03% to $1.2705 ahead of UK inflation data due later on Wednesday, which precedes the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday, when interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.

The Australian currency outperformed the greenback on Tuesday, aided by a hawkish approach from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock in a press conference following the central bank’s rate decision.

The Australian dollar closed 0.08% higher at $0.6661, extending its 0.66% gain from the previous session. The New Zealand dollar, meanwhile, slipped 0.08% to $0.6140.

Elsewhere, the yen was little changed at 157.89 per dollar, as it remains under pressure from sharp interest rate differentials between Japan and the United States in particular.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) April policy meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed policymakers debating the impact a weak yen could have on pricing, but the release did little to move the market as investors looked ahead to the next BOJ meeting, in July.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated on Tuesday that the central bank may hike interest rates next month, based on economic statistics available at that time.

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