<dhhead>MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS REPORT</dhhead>
INTRODUCTION
Strong economic growth in the first quarter of FY23 helped India overcome the UK to become the fifth- largest economy after it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs. 295.36 lakh crores (US$ 3.54 trillion), against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs. 269.50 lakh crores (US$ 3.23 trillion). The growth in nominal GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 9.6% as compared to 14.2% in 2022-23. Strong domestic demand for consumption and investment, along with Governments continued emphasis on capital expenditure are seen as among the key driver of the GDP in the second half of FY24. During the period April-June 2025, Indias exports stood at US$ 109.11 billion, with Engineering Goods (25.35%), Petroleum Products (18.33%) and electronic goods (7.73%) being the top three exported commodity. Rising employment and increasing private consumption, supported by rising consumer sentiment, will support GDP growth in the coming months.
Future capital spending of the government in the economy is expected to be supported by factors such as tax buoyancy, the streamlined tax system with low rates, a thorough assessment and rationalisation of the tariff structure, and the digitization of tax filing. In the medium run, increased capital spending on infrastructure and asset-building projects is set to increase growth multipliers. The contact-based services sector has demonstrated promise to boost growth by unleashing the pent-up demand. The sectors success is being captured by a number of HFIs (High-Frequency Indicators) that are performing well, indicating the beginnings of a comeback.
India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.
Indias appeal as a destination for investments has grown stronger and more sustainable because of the current period of global unpredictability and volatility, and the record amounts of money raised by India-focused funds in 2022 are evidence of investor faith in the "Invest in India" narrative.
Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs. 173.82 lakh crores (US$ 2.08 trillion), against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs. 160.71 lakh crores (US$ 1.92 trillion). The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 8.2% as compared to 7.0% in 202223. There are 113 unicorn startups in India, with a combined valuation of over US$ 350 billion. As many as 14 tech startups are expected to list in 2024 Fintech sector poised to generate the largest number of future unicorns in India. With India presently has the third-largest unicorn base in the world.
The government is also focusing on renewable sources by achieving 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. India is committed to achieving the countrys ambition of Net Zero Emissions by 2070 through a five-pronged strategy, Panchamrit. Moreover, India ranked 3rd in the renewable energy country attractive index.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, India needs to boost its rate of employment growth and create 90 million non-farm jobs between 2023 to 2030 in order to increase productivity and economic growth. The net employment rate needs to grow by 1.5% per annum from 2023 to 2030 to achieve 88.5% GDP growth between same time periods. Indias current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 0.7% of GDP in FY24. The CAD stood at US$ 23.2 billion for the 2023-24 compared to US$ 67.0 billion or 2.0% of GDP in the preceding year. This was largely due to decrease in merchandise trade deficit.
Exports fared remarkably well during the pandemic and aided recovery when all other growth engines were losing steam in terms of their contribution to GDP. Going forward, the contribution of merchandise exports may waver as several of Indias trade partners witness an economic slowdown. According to Minister of Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles Mr. Piyush Goyal, Indian exports are expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
India is primarily a domestic demand-driven economy, with consumption and investments contributing to 70% of the economic activity. With an improvement in the economic scenario and the Indian economy recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, several investments and developments have been made across various sectors of the economy.
According to World Bank, India must continue to prioritise lowering inequality while also putting growth- oriented policies into place to boost the economy. In view of this, there have been some developments that have taken place in the recent past. Some of them are mentioned below.
According to HSBC Flash India PMI report, business activity surged in April to its highest level in about 14 years as well as sustained robust demand. The composite index reached 62.2, indicating continuous expansion since August 2021, alongside positive job growth and decreased input inflation, affirming Indias status as the fastest-growing major economy.
As of July 5, 2024, Indias foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 657.15 billion.
In May 2024, India saw a total of US$ 6.9 billion in PE-VC investments.
Merchandise exports in June 2024 stood at US$ 35.20 billion, with total merchandise exports of US$ 109.96 billion during the period of April 2024 to June 2024.
India was also named as the 48th most innovative country among the top 50 countries, securing 40th position out of 132 economies in the Global Innovation Index 2023. India rose from 81st position in 2015 to 40th position in 2023. India ranks 3rd position in the global number of scientific publications.
In June 2024, the gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) stood at highest monthly revenue collection at Rs. 1.74 lakh crore (US$ 20.83 billion) vs Rs. 1.73 lakh crore (US$ 20.71 billion)
Between April 2000-March 2024, cumulative FDI equity inflows to India stood at US$ 97 billion.
In May 2024, the overall IIP (Index of Industrial Production) stood at 154.2. The Indices of Industrial Production for the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors stood at 136.5, 149.7 and 229.3, respectively, in May 2024.
According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Indias Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation reached 5.08% (Provisional) for June 2024.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) inflows between April-July (2023-24) were close to Rs. 80,500 crore (US$ 9.67 billion), while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) sold Rs. 4,500 crore (US$ 540.56 million) in the same period. As per depository data, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) invested (US$ 13.89 billion) in India during January- (up to 15th July) 2024.
The wheat procurement during Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2024-25 (till May) was estimated to be 266 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) and the rice procured in Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 2024-25 was 400 LMT.
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
Over the years, the Indian government has introduced many initiatives to strengthen the nations economy. The Indian government has been effective in developing policies and programmes that are not only beneficial for citizens to improve their financial stability but also for the overall growth of the economy. Over recent decades, Indias rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in its demand for exports. Besides this, a number of the governments flagship programmes, including Make in India, Start-up India, Digital India, the Smart City Mission, and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation, is aimed at creating immense opportunities in India. In this regard, some of the initiatives taken by the government to improve the economic condition of the country are mentioned below:
In February 2024, the Finance Ministry announced the total expenditure in Interim 2024-25 estimated at Rs. 47,65,768 crore (US$ 571.64 billion) of which total capital expenditure is Rs. 11,11,111 crore (US$ 133.27 billion).
On January 22, 2024, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced the Pradhan Mantri Suryodaya Yojana. Under this scheme, 1 crore households will receive rooftop solar installations.
On September 17, 2023, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched the Central Sector Scheme PM-VISHWAKARMA in New Delhi. The new scheme aims to provide recognition and comprehensive support to traditional artisans & craftsmen who work with their hands and basic tools. This initiative is designed to enhance the quality, scale, and reach of their products, as well as to integrate them with MSME value chains.
On August 6, 2023, Amrit Bharat Station Scheme was launched to transform and revitalize 1309 railway stations across the nation. This scheme envisages development of stations on a continuous basis with a long-term vision.
On June 28, 2023, the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change introduced the Draft Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, 2023.
From April 1, 2023, Foreign Trade Policy 2023 was unveiled to create an enabling ecosystem to support the philosophy of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and Local goes Global.
To enhance Indias manufacturing capabilities by increasing investment and production in the sector, the government of India has introduced the Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI) for Pharmaceuticals.
Prime Ministers Development Initiative for North-East Region (PM-DevINE) was announced in the Union Budget 2022-23 with a financial outlay of Rs. 1,500 crore (US$ 182.35 million).
Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has inaugurated a new food security scheme for providing free food grains to Antyodaya Ann Yojna (AAY) & Primary Household (PHH) beneficiaries, called Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) from January 1, 2023.
The Amrit Bharat Station scheme for Indian Railways envisages the development of stations on a continuous basis with a long-term vision, formulated on December 29, 2022, by the Ministry of Railways.
On October 7, 2022, the Department for Promotion of Industry, and Internal Trade (DPIIT) launched Credit Guarantee Scheme for Start-ups (CGSS) aiming to provide credit guarantees up to a specified limit by start-ups, facilitated by Scheduled Commercial Banks, Non-Banking Financial Companies and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs).
Telecom Technology Development Fund (TTDF) Scheme was launched in October 2022 by the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF), a body under the Department of Telecommunications. The objective is to fund R&D in rural-specific communication technology applications and form synergies among academia, start-ups, research institutes, and the industry to build and develop the telecom ecosystem.
Home & Cooperation Minister Mr. Amit Shah laid the foundation stone and performed Bhoomi Pujan of Tanot Mandir Complex Project under Border Tourism Development Programme in Jaisalmer in September 2022.
In August 2022, Mr. Narendra Singh Tomar, Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare inaugurated four new facilities at the Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI), which has been rendering excellent services for more than 60 years under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
In August 2022, a Special Food Processing Fund of Rs. 2,000 crore (US$ 242.72 million) was set up with National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) to provide affordable credit for investments in setting up Mega Food Parks (MFP) as well as processing units in the MFPs.
In July 2022, Deendayal Port Authority (DPA) announced plans to develop two Mega Cargo Handling Terminals on a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis under Public-Private Partnership (ppp) Mode at an estimated cost of Rs. 5,963 crore (US$ 747.64 million).
In July 2022, the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi, approved the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between India & Maldives. This MoU will provide a platform to tap the benefits of information technology for court digitization and can be a potential growth area for IT companies and start-ups in both countries.
India and Namibia entered a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on wildlife conservation and sustainable biodiversity utilization on July 20, 2022, for establishing the cheetah into the historical range in India.
In July 2022, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) approved international trade settlements in Indian rupees (Rs.) to promote the growth of global trade with emphasis on exports from India and to support the increasing interest of the global trading community.
The Agnipath Scheme aims to develop a young and skilled armed force backed by an advanced warfare technology scheme by providing youth with an opportunity to serve Indian Army for a 4-year period. It is introduced by the Government of India on June 14, 2022.
In June 2022, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of development projects worth Rs. 21,000 crore (US$ 2.63 billion) at Gujarat Gaurav Abhiyan at Vadodara.
Rajnath Singh, Minister of Defence, launched 75 newly developed Artificial Intelligence (ai) products/technologies during the first-ever AI in Defence (AIDef) symposium and exhibition organized by the Ministry of Defence in New Delhi on July 11, 2022.
In June 2022, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone of 1,406 projects worth more than Rs. 80,000 crore (US$ 10.01 billion) at the ground-breaking ceremony of the UP Investors Summit in Lucknow. The Projects encompass diverse sectors like Agriculture and Allied industries, IT and Electronics, MSME, Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Pharma, Tourism, Defence & Aerospace, and Handloom & Textiles.
The Indian Institute of Spices Research (IISR) under the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Lysterra LLC, a Russia-based company for the commercialization of bio capsule, an encapsulation technology for biofertilization on June 30, 2022.
As of April 2022, India signed 13 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners including major trade agreements like the India-UAE Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (indAus ECTA).
Mission Shakti was applicable with effect from April 1, 2022, aimed at strengthening interventions for womens safety, security, and empowerment.
The Union Budget of 2022-23 was presented on February 1, 2022, by the Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman. The budget had four priorities PM GatiShakti, Inclusive Development, Productivity Enhancement and Investment, and Financing of Investments. In the Union Budget 2022-23, effective capital expenditure is expected to increase by 27% at Rs. 10.68 trillion (US$ 142.93 billion) to boost the economy. This will be 4.1% of the total Gross Domestic Production (GDP).
Strengthening of Pharmaceutical Industry (SPI) was launched in March 2022 by the Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilisers to provide credit linked capital and interest subsidy for Technology Upgradation of MSME units in pharmaceutical sector, as well as support of up to Rs. 20 crore (US$ 2.4 million) each for common facilities including Research centre, testing labs and ETPs (Effluent Treatment Plant) in Pharma Clusters, to enhance the role of MSMEs.
Under PM GatiShakti Master Plan, the National Highway Network will develop 25,000 km of new highways network, which will be worth Rs. 20,000 crore (US$ 2.67 billion). In 2022-23. Increased government expenditure is expected to attract private investments, with a production-linked incentive scheme providing excellent opportunities. Consistently proactive, graded, and measured policy support is anticipated to boost the Indian economy.
In February 2022, The Ministry of Social Justice & Empowerment launched the Scheme for Economic Empowerment of Denotified/Nomadic/SemiNomadic tribal communities (DNTs) (SEED) to provide basic facilities like good quality coaching, and health insurance. livelihoods initiative at a community level and financial assistance for the construction of houses.
In February 2022, Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman said that productivity linked incentive (PLI) schemes would be extended to 14 sectors to achieve the mission of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and create 60 lakh jobs with an additional production capacity of Rs. 30 trillion (US$ 401.49 billion) in the next five years.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced funding for the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for domestic solar cells and module manufacturing of Rs. 24,000 crore (US$ 3.21 billion).
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government announced a production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for Bulk Drugs which was an investment of Rs. 2,500 crore (US$ 334.60 million).
In the Union Budget of 2022, Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman announced that a scheme for design-led manufacturing in 5G would be launched as part of the PLI scheme.
In September 2021, Union Cabinet approved major reforms in the telecom sector, which are expected to boost employment, growth, competition, and consumer interests. Key reforms include rationalization of adjusted gross revenue, rationalization of bank guarantees (BGs), and encouragement of spectrum sharing.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, the government has allocated Rs. 44,720 crore (US$ 5.98 billion) to Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) for capital investments in the 4G spectrum.
Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman allocated Rs. 650 crore (US$ 86.69 million) for the Deep Ocean mission that seeks to explore vast marine living and nonliving resources. Department of Space (DoS) has got Rs. 13,700 crore (US$ 1.83 billion) in 202223 for several key space missions like Gaganyaan, Chandrayaan-3, and Aditya L-1 (sun).
In May 2021, the government approved the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for manufacturing advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries at an estimated outlay of Rs. 18,100 crore (US$ 2.44 billion); this move is expected to attract domestic and foreign investments worth Rs. 45,000 crore (uS$ 6.07 billion).
Minister for Finance & Corporate Affairs Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman announced in the Union Budget of 2022-23 that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would issue Digital Rupee using blockchain and other technologies.
In the Union Budget of 2022-23, Railway got an investment of Rs. 2.38 trillion (US$ 31.88 billion) and over 400 new high-speed trains were announced. The concept of "One Station, One Product" was also introduced.
To boost competitiveness, Budget 2022-23 has announced reforming the 16-year-old Special Economic Zone (SEZ) act.
In June 2021, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) announced that the investment limit for FPI (foreign portfolio investors) in the State Development Loans (SDLs) and government securities (G-secs) would persist unaffected at 2% and 6%, respectively, in FY22.
In November 2020, the Government of India announced Rs. 2.65 trillion (US$ 36 billion) stimulus package to generate job opportunities and provide liquidity support to various sectors such as tourism, aviation, construction, and housing. Also, Indias cabinet approved the production- linked incentives (PLI) scheme to provide ~Rs. 2 trillion (US$ 27 billion) over five years to create jobs and boost production in the country.
Numerous foreign companies are setting up their facilities in India on account of various Government initiatives like Make in India and Digital India. Prime Minister of India Mr. Narendra Modi launched the Make in India initiative with an aim to boost the countrys manufacturing sector and increase the purchasing power of the average Indian consumer, which would further drive demand and spur development, thus benefiting investors. The Government of India, under its Make in India initiative, is trying to boost the contribution made by the manufacturing sector with an aim to take it to 25% of the GDP from the current 17%. Besides, the government has also come up with the Digital India initiative, which focuses on three core components: the creation of digital infrastructure, delivering services digitally, and increasing digital literacy.
On January 29, 2022, the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL) will acquire bad loans worth up to Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 6.69 billion) about 15 accounts by March 31, 2022. India Debt Resolution Co. Ltd (IDRCL) will control the resolution process. This will clean up Indias financial system, help fuel liquidity, and boost the Indian economy.
National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (NaBFID) is a bank that will provide non-recourse infrastructure financing and is expected to support projects from the first quarter of FY23; it is expected to raise Rs. 4 trillion (US$ 53.58 billion) in the next three years.
By November 1, 2021, India, and the United Kingdom hope to begin negotiations on a free trade agreement. The proposed FTA between these two countries is likely to unlock business opportunities and generate jobs. Both sides have renewed their commitment to boost trade in a manner that benefits all.
In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced an initiative to start a national mission to reach the US$ 400 billion merchandise export target by FY22.
In August 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi launched a digital payment solution, e-RUPI, a contactless and cashless instrument for digital payments.
In April 2021, Dr. Ahmed Abdul Rahman AlBanna, Ambassador of the UAE to India and Founding Patron of IFIICC, stated that trilateral trade between India, the UAE and Israel is expected to reach US$ 110 billion by 2030.
India is expected to attract investment of around US$ 100 billion in developing the oil and gas infrastructure during 2019-23.
The Government of India is expected to increase public health spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025.
ROAD AHEAD
In the second quarter of FY24, the growth momentum of the first quarter was sustained, and high- frequency indicators (HFIs) performed well in July and August of 2023. Indias comparatively strong position in the external sector reflects the countrys positive outlook for economic growth and rising employment rates. India ranked 5th in foreign direct investment inflows among the developed and developing nations listed for the first quarter of 2022.
Indias economic story during the first half of the current financial year highlighted the unwavering support the government gave to its capital expenditure, which, in 2023-24, stood 37.4% higher than the same period last year. In the budget of 2023-24, capital expenditure took lead by steeply increasing the capital expenditure outlay by 37.4 % in BE 2023-24 to Rs.10 lakh crore (US$ 120.12 billion) over Rs. 7.28 lakh crore (US$ 87.45 billion) in RE 2022-23. The ratio of revenue expenditure to capital outlay increased by 1.2% in the current year, signalling a clear change in favour of higher-quality spending. Stronger revenue generation because of improved tax compliance, increased profitability of the company, and increasing economic activity also contributed to rising capital spending levels. In February 2024, the Finance Ministry announced the total expenditure in Interim 2024-25 estimated at Rs. 47,65,768 crore (US$ 571.64 billion) of which total capital expenditure is Rs. 11,11,111 crore (US$ 133.27 billion).
Since Indias resilient growth despite the global pandemic, Indias exports climbed at the second- highest rate with a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 8.39% in merchandise exports and a 29.82% growth in service exports till April 2023. With a reduction in port congestion, supply networks are being restored. The CPI-C inflation reduction from June 2022 already reflects the impact. In September 2023 (Provisional), CPI-C inflation was 5.02%, down from 7.01% in June 2022. With a proactive set of administrative actions by the government, flexible monetary policy, and a softening of global commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures in India look to be on the decline overall.
(Source: https://www.ibef.org/economY/economic-surveY-2023-24)
INDIAS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 2023-24 INTRODUCTION
Union Minister for Finance, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, presented the Economic Survey 2023-24 in the
Parliament on July 22, 2024. The key highlights of the Economic Survey 2023-24 are as follows:
State of the Economy 2023-24: Steady as She Goes
In response to the pandemic, India has responded in three components: first, by focusing on public spending on infrastructure; second, by a natural response of business enterprise and public administration amidst adversities, i.e., digitalisation of service delivery; and third, by Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan in terms of targeted relief to different sectors of the economy and sections of the population, and structural reforms that assisted a firm recovery and increased the medium-term growth potential.
Indias real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, posting growth of over 7% for a third consecutive year, driven by stable consumption demand and steadily improving investment demand.
Gross value added (GVA) at 2011-12 prices grew by 7.2% in FY24, with growth remaining broad-based.
Net taxes at constant (2011-12) prices grew by 19.1% in FY24, aided by reasonably strong tax growth, both at the centre and state levels and rationalisation of subsidy expenditure. This led to the difference between GDP and GVA growth in FY24.
The shares of the agriculture, industry and services sector in overall GVA at current prices were 17.7%, 27.6% and 54.7%, respectively in FY24.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing GVA grew by 9.9% in FY24 as compared to FY23.
HSBC India PMI for manufacturing, consistently remained well above the threshold value of 50, indicating sustained expansion and stability in Indias manufacturing sector.
Construction activities displayed increased momentum and registered a growth of 9.9% in FY24 due to the infrastructure buildout and buoyant commercial and residential real estate demand.
Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew by 4.0% in real terms in FY24.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by private non-financial corporations increased by 19.8% in FY23.
In 2023, residential real estate sales in India were at their highest since 2013, witnessing a 33% YoY growth, with a total sale of 4.1 lakh units in the top eight cities.
New supply witnessed an all-time high, with 5.2 lakh units launched in 2023, as against 4.3 lakh units in 2022. The momentum continued in Q1 of 2024, witnessing record-breaking sales of 1.2 lakh units, clocking a robust 41% YoY growth.
Corporate bond issuances in FY24 were up by 70.5%, with private placement remaining the preferred channel for corporates. Outstanding corporate bonds were up by 9.6% (YoY) as of the end of March 2024.
The fiscal deficit of the Union Government has been brought down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.
Revenue receipts of the union government consisting of tax revenue (net to centre) and non-tax revenue (NTR) increased YoY by 14.5% in FY24 (pa), with robust growth in both tax and non-tax revenues.
Growth in gross tax revenue (GTR) was estimated to be 13.4% in FY24, translating into tax revenue buoyancy of 1.4. The growth was led by a 15.8% growth in direct taxes and a 10.6% increase in indirect taxes over FY23. Broadly, 55% of GTR accrued from direct taxes and the remaining 45% from indirect taxes.
The increase in indirect taxes in FY24 was mainly driven by a 12.7% growth in GST collection.
In FY24 total government expenditure (as per the provisional actuals) declined to 15.0% of GDP from 17.7% in FY21.
The provisional actuals show that capital expenditure for FY24 stood at Rs. 9.5 lakh crore (US$ 113.73 billion), an increase of 28.2% on a YoY basis, and was 2.8x the level of FY20.
The gross fiscal deficit of 23 states was 8.6% lower than the budgeted figure of Rs. 9.1 lakh crore (US$ 108.94 billion). This implies that fiscal deficit as a per cent of GDP for these states came in at 2.8% as against a budgeted 3.1%.
The weighted average maturity of the outstanding stock of dated securities of the Government has increased from 9.6 years in end-March 2011 to 12.5 years in end-March 2024.
For the first time in 13 years, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Indias sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive in May 2024 on the back of robust economic growth, sound economic fundamentals and improved composition of government spending.
The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio declined to 2.8% in March 2024, a 12-year low.
Indias service exports have remained robust, reaching a new high of US$ 341.1 billion in FY24. Exports (merchandise and services) in FY24 grew by 0.15%, while the total imports declined by 4.9% despite a strong domestic market demand.
the Current Account Deficit (CAD) stood at 0.7% of the GDP during the year, an improvement from the deficit of 2.0% of GDP in FY23.
External debt as a ratio to GDP stood at a low level of 18.7% as of end-March 2024. The ratio of foreign exchange reserves to total debt stood at 97.4% as of March 2024.
From the gender perspective, the female labour force participation rate has been rising for six years, i.e., from 23.3% in 2017-18 to 37% in 2022-23, driven mainly by the rising participation of rural women.
The fiscal deficit of the government is expected to drop to 4.5% of GDP or lower by FY26.
Considering several factors, the survey conservatively projects a real GDP growth of 6.5% to 7%, with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side.
MONETARY MANAGEMENT AND THE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION: STABILITY IS THE WATCHWORD
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the status quo on the policy repo rate at 6.5% in FY24.
Reserve Money (M0) recorded year-on-year (YoY) growth of 6.7% as of 29 March 2024, compared with 9.7% in the previous year. M0, adjusted for the first-round impact of changes in the CRR, recorded a 6.7% growth compared with 7.4% a year ago.
The growth in Broad Money (M3), excluding the impact of the merger of HDFC with HDFC Bank (with effect from 1 July 2023), was 11.2% (YoY) as of 22 March 2024, compared with 9% a year ago.
As of 22 March 2024, the Money Multiplier (mm) was 5.4 against 5.2 a year ago.
Credit disbursal by SCBs stood at Rs. 164.3 lakh crore (US$ 1.96 trillion), growing by 20.2% at the end of March 2024, compared to 15% growth at the end of March 2023. The trend is continuing in FY25, as reflected in a 19% and 19.8% YoY growth in bank credit in April and May 2024.
Agricultural credit had increased nearly 1.5 times from Rs. 13.3 lakh crore (US$ 159.22 billion) in FY21 to Rs. 20.7 lakh crore (US$ 247.82 billion) in FY24.
Industrial credit growth picked up in H2 of FY24, registering 8.5% growth in March 2024, compared with 5.2% a year ago.
The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs continued its downward trend, reaching a 12-year low of 2.8% at the end of March 2024 from its peak of 11.2% in FY18.
The GNPA ratio shrunk to 2.8% in March 2024.
As of the end of March 2024, all banks met the CET-1 ratio requirement of 13.9%, well above the regulatory minimum.
The number of adults with an account in a formal financial institution increased from 35% in 2011 to 77% in 2021.
During FY23, the microfinance sector bounced back strongly, achieving an aggregate disbursement of Rs. 1.8 lakh crore (US$ 21.55 billion), 55% higher than the previous year.
Primary markets remained robust during FY24, facilitating capital formation of Rs. 10.9 lakh crore (US$ 21.55 billion) (which approximates 29% of the gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporates during FY23), compared to Rs. 9.3 lakh crore (US$ 111.34 billion) in FY23.
During FY24, the value of corporate bond issuances increased to Rs. 8.6 lakh crore (US$ 102.96 billion) from Rs. 7.6 lakh crore (US$ 90.99 billion) during the previous financial year.
Indias market capitalisation to GDP ratio has improved significantly over the last five years to 124% in FY24, compared to 77% in FY19.
PRICES AND INFLATION: UNDER CONTROL
With the commitment of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the goal of price stability and policy actions by the Central Government, India successfully managed to keep retail inflation at 5.4% in FY24, the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic period.
In 2023, Indias inflation rate was within its target range of 2% to 6%.
Core services inflation eased to a nine-year low in FY24; meanwhile, core goods inflation also declined to a four-year low.
Food inflation based on the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) increased from 3.8% in FY22 to 6.6% in FY23 and further to 7.5% in FY24.
The inflation rate was less than 6% in 29 out of the 36 States and Union Territories.
The RBI and the IMF have projected that Indias consumer price inflation will progressively align towards the inflation target in FY26.
Assuming a normal monsoon and no further external or policy shocks, the RBI expects headline inflation to be 4.5% in FY25 and 4.1% in FY26. IMF has projected an inflation rate of 4.6% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025 for India.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: STABILITY AMID PLENTY
Services exports continued to perform well, paring the overall trade deficit from US$ 121.6 billion in FY23 to US$ 78.1 billion in FY24.
India is moving up the global value chains (GVCs), with the share of GVC-related trade in gross trade rising to 40.3% in 2022 from 35.1% in 2019.
Indias rank in the World Banks Logistics Performance Index improved by six places, from 44th out of 139 countries in 2018 to 38th in 2023.
India witnessed positive net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows in FY24 of US$ 44.1 billion.
The Rupee emerged as the least volatile currency among its emerging market peers and a few advanced economies in FY24.
The trade openness indicator, which rose from 37.5 in FY05 to 45.9 in FY24, has contributed significantly to economic growth as it facilitated an efficient allocation of resources through comparative advantage.
The share of trade (excluding petroleum products exports and crude oil imports) in GDP rose from 32.3% in FY05 to 40.8% in FY23.
A 42.2% increase in exports in FY24 (on a YoY basis) enabled smartphones to rank among Indias top five export items considered at six-digit HS product categories.
Indias services export in US dollar terms expanded at a robust CAGR of more than 14% over the last 30 years (between 1993 and 2022), significantly higher than Indias merchandise export growth (10.7%) and world services export growth (6.8%).
During FY24, Indias Foreign Exchange Reserves increased by US$ 68 billion, the highest increase among major foreign exchange reserves-holding countries.
MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK: A GROWTH STRATEGY FOR NEW INDIA
Indias per capita current dollar GDP has increased from US$ 301.5 in 1993 to US$ 2,484.8 in 2023.
Indias workforce is estimated to be 56.5 crores, of which more than 45% are employed in agriculture, 11.4% in manufacturing, 28.9% in services, and 13.0% in construction.
According to UN population projections, Indias working-age population (15-59 years) will continue to grow until 2044.
The government has launched several schemes, such as the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana and the Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises, aimed at providing affordable credit to MSMEs.
India has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 33-35% (from 2005 levels), increasing the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity to 40% and enhancing forest cover to absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030.
The Government of India has been proactive in boosting the growth of the MSME sector, through initiatives such as the allocation of Rs. 5 lakh crores (US$ 59.86 billion) Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for businesses, including MSMEs; equity infusion of Rs. 50,000 crores (US$ 59.86 billion) through the MSME Self-Reliant India Fund; New revised criteria for the classification of MSMEs; rollout of Raising and Accelerating MSME Performance (RAMP) programme with an outlay of Rs. 6,000 crores (US$ 718.30 million) over 5 years; Launch of Udyam Assist Platform (UAP) on 11.01.2023 to bring the Informal Micro Enterprises (IMEs) under the formal ambit for availing the benefit under Priority Sector Lending (PSL).
In its April 2024 World Economic Outlook, the IMF has raised Indias growth forecast for 202425 to 6.8% from 6.5% on the back of strong domestic demand and a rising working-age population, making India the fastest-growing G20 economy.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION: DEALING WITH TRADE-OFFS
India envisions a Viksit Bharat by 2047, which translates to Developed India.
The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlines the strategy to enhance the sustainability of the countrys development path.
India has made noteworthy progress on climate action. The addition to the installed solar power capacity was 15.03 GW in 2023-24, reaching a cumulative of 82.64 GW on 30 April 2024.
Under the National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency, the eighth cycle of the Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme13 was notified in June 2023 for the period 2023-24 to 202526 and covers sectors like aluminium, cement, chlor-alkali, iron & steel, pulp & paper, and textile with a total energy saving target of 0.3370 MTOE (million tonnes of oil equivalent).
The country achieved 40% cumulative electrical power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources in 2021 and reduced the emission intensity of Indias GDP from 2005 levels by 33% in 2019- nine and eleven years before the target year of 2030, respectively.
India is on track to make an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3.0 billion tonnes through tree and forest cover by 2030, with a carbon sink of 1.97 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent having already been created from 2005 to 2019.
As per the NITIs IESS 2047 model, Indias total investment cost until 2047 is conservatively estimated at ~USD 250 billion per year to prepare its energy systems for Net-Zero pathways.
The Government undertook the issue of sovereign green bonds amounting to Rs. 16,000 crores (US$ 2.39 billion) in January-February 2023 to raise proceeds for public sector projects that would contribute to the efforts to reduce the intensity of the economys emissions, followed by Rs. 20,000 crores raised (US$ 2.39 billion) through sovereign green bonds in October-December 2023.
The global voluntary carbon market is worth over US$ 1.2 billion, and India is the second- largest supplier of carbon offsets.
SOCIAL SECTOR: BENEFITS THAT EMPOWER
Indias economic growth is accompanied by significant social and institutional advancements, enhancing welfare through effective government programs.The goal of becoming a developed country by 2047 emphasizes economic growth as a pathway to comprehensive human development.
Between FY18 and FY24, nominal GDP grew at a CAGR of 9.5%, while overall welfare expenditure increased at a CAGR of 12.8%.
Between FY18 and FY24, expenditure on health has grown at a CAGR of 15.8%, highlighting the focus on improving health outcomes for citizens.
Initiatives like e-Panchayat and e-Gram SWARAJ are improving transparency and efficiency in rural governance.
The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) provides wage employment and promotes asset creation for sustainable livelihoods.
Over 1.6 lakh primary healthcare facilities have been upgraded to improve access to health services.
Womens participation in the labour force rose from 23.3% in 2017-18 to 37% in 2022-23, showcasing progress in gender equality.
Over 10.3 crore women have received free gas connections under the PM Ujjwala Yojana, promoting womens socio-economic empowerment.
The fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) indicates that full vaccination among children aged 12-23 months increased from 77.9% in 2015-16 to 83.8% in 2019-21.
From 2014 to 2022, Rs. 1.53 lakh crore (US$ 18.35 billion) were spent on CSR activities, with over half of companies exceeding their mandatory obligations.
The government has allocated Rs. 1.5 lakh crore (US$ 17.99 billion) under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) to ensure affordable housing for women and marginalized communities
EMPLOYMENT AND SKILL DEVELOPMENT: TOWARDS QUALITY
Indias unemployment rate declined to 3.2% in 2022-23, reflecting improvements in the labour market.
The youth unemployment rate decreased from 17.8% in 2017-18 to 10% in 2022-23.
The quarterly urban unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above declined to 6.7% in the quarter ending March 2024 from 6.8% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
The female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) rose significantly, particularly in rural areas, indicating increased contributions of women to the workforce.
By 2029-30, gig workers are expected to number 2.35 crore (23.5 million), forming 6.7% of the non-agricultural workforce as compared with 2.6% in 2020-21.
The Government of India has allocated a budget of Rs. 10,300 crore (US$ 1.24 billion) for the India AI Mission in 2024.
Clean energy initiatives in India are projected to create about 3.4 million jobs by 2030 through renewable energy capacity installation.
Net payroll additions under the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) more than doubled in the past five years, signalling healthy growth in formal employment reaching 131.5 lakh in FY24.
During FY15-FY22, the wages per worker in rural areas grew at 6.9% CAGR vis-a-vis a corresponding 6.1% CAGR in urban areas.
There are approximately 5.4 million formal contract staff or flexi workers in India, representing 1% of the total workforce.
Over 32.38 lakh apprentices have been engaged under the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme (NAPS) from FY17 to FY24, indicating a growing focus on practical training.
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT: PLENTY OF UPSIDE LEFT IF WE GET IT RIGHT
The agriculture sector in India has demonstrated a robust average growth rate of 4.18% per year over the last five years, indicating a positive trend in agricultural productivity and output.
India maintains a substantial stock of foodgrains, with approximately 40% of this stock being distributed free of charge to two-thirds of the population, ensuring food security for vulnerable groups.
India exports more than 7% of its total food grains, contributing to its position as a significant player in the global agricultural market.
The Government of India has implemented various initiatives aimed at enhancing investment and productivity in agriculture, including the establishment of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to ensure fair compensation for farmers.
The agriculture sector provides essential livelihood support to about 42.3% of the Indian population, highlighting its critical role in the economy and society.
In the fiscal year 2022-23, India achieved an all-time high in foodgrain production, reaching 329.7 million tonnes, showcasing the sectors potential for growth and sustainability.
Agriculture accounts for 18.2% of Indias Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices, underscoring its importance in the national economy.
The contribution of the livestock sector to the Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture has risen from 24.32% in 2014-15 to 30.38% in 2022-23, reflecting its growing significance in the agricultural landscape.
The fisheries sector has experienced impressive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% between 2014-15 and 2022-23, making it a vital component of the agricultural economy.
As of January 31, 2024, a total of 7.5 crore Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs) have been issued, greatly facilitating farmers access to affordable credit for their agricultural needs.
The total value of agri-food exports, including processed food, reached US$ 46.44 billion in 2022-23, accounting for approximately 11.7% of Indias total exports, highlighting the sectors global competitiveness.
INDUSTRY: SMALL AND MEDIUM MATTERS
Industrial growth accelerated in FY24, with manufacturing and construction leading the way, resulting in a 25% increase in industrial Gross Value Added (GVA) compared to pre-COVID levels in FY20.
The growth was supported by greater credit offtake and a focus on capital formation, particularly in infrastructure-oriented sectors, alongside a favourable policy framework.
The economic growth rate of 8.2% in FY24 was significantly supported by industrial growth of 9.5%, particularly in manufacturing and construction.
In FY23, manufacturing contributed 14.3% to total GVA, with a substantial share of 35.2% in output, highlighting its critical role in the economy.
Coal remains vital for energy, accounting for over 55% of primary commercial energy, with significant production increases reducing import dependence.
Indias pharmaceutical market, valued at US$ 50 billion, is the third largest globally, with a strong presence in generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients.
The textile sector generated a GVA of Rs. 3.77 lakh crore (US$ 45.20 billion) in FY23 and is a significant contributor to non-corporate manufacturing GVA.
The electronics sector has grown significantly, contributing 4% to Indias GDP, with domestic production increasing to Rs. 8.22 lakh crore (US$ 98.56 billion).
MSMEs accounted for 35.4% of all-India manufacturing output in FY22, playing a crucial role in employment generation and economic growth.
SERVICES: FUELLING GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
The services sector has been a cornerstone of Indias economic growth, contributing about 55% to the economy in FY24.
The services sector witnessed a real growth rate of over 6% annually for most years in the last decade, with a 7.6% growth rate in FY24.
India ranked fifth in global services exports, accounting for 44% of total exports in FY24, with services exports growing at 4.8% YoY despite global trade challenges.
The services sector saw a robust increase in bank credit, with a 22.9% YoY growth, reaching Rs. 45.9 lakh crore (US$ 550.3 billion) in March 2024.
Global Capability Centres (GCCs) employed over 16.6 lakh individuals in FY23, with revenues increasing from US$ 19.4 billion in FY15 to US$ 46 billion in FY23.
The overall tele-density rose from 75.2% in March 2014 to 85.7% in March 2024, with internet subscribers increasing from 25.1 crores to 95.4 crores.
The Indian e-commerce market is projected to exceed US$ 350 billion by 2030, with modern retail (including e-commerce) expected to grow to 30-35% of total retail in the next 3 to 5 years.
The tourism sector saw over 92 lakh foreign tourist arrivals in 2023, a 43.5% YoY increase, generating over Rs. 2.3 lakh crore (US$ 27.58 billion) in foreign exchange earnings.
Residential real estate sales reached 4.1 lakh units in 2023, marking a 33% YoY growth, with new supply hitting 5.2 lakh units.
Gross GST collection reached Rs. 20.18 lakh crore (US$ 241.97 billion) in FY24, marking an 11.7% increase from the previous year, indicating robust domestic trading activity.
INFRASTRUCTURE: LIFTING POTENTIAL GROWTH
The Union Governments capital expenditure has nearly tripled in FY24 compared to FY20, significantly benefiting foundational assets like roads and railways.
Despite innovations, government capital expenditure remains central to funding large-scale infrastructure projects. The gross budgetary support (GBS) for railways and highways rose from 36.4% in FY21 to 42.9% in FY24.
The Government of India achieved its highest-ever asset monetisation revenue of Rs. 40,314 crores (US$ 4.83 billion) in FY24, with over Rs. 1 lakh crores (US$ 12 billion) raised through asset monetisation since FY19.
Capital investment in road transport rose to about 1.0% of GDP to around Rs. 3.01 lakh crores (US$ 36.09 billion) in FY24, with significant private investment attracting a conducive policy environment.
The national highway network increased by 1.6 times from 2014 to 2024, with the construction pace improving from 11.7 km/day in FY14 to ~34 km/day in FY24.
Capital expenditure on Indian Railways increased by 77% over five years, reaching Rs. 2.62 lakh crores (US$ 31.41 billion) in FY24, with over 68,584 route km and 12.54 lakh employees.
Major port capacity has nearly doubled since 2014, with Indias rank improving to 22nd in the World Bank Logistics Performance Index for international shipments.
Under the Sagarmala programme, 839 projects worth Rs. 5.8 lakh crores (US$ 69.54 billion) have been initiated, with 262 projects completed and 217 under implementation.
The airport sector saw a capital expenditure of around Rs. 72,000 crores (US$ 8.63 billion) in the last five years, with 21 new Greenfield airports approved and 62 million additional passenger capacity added.
India aims for 500 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, with 190.57 GW installed as of March 2024, accounting for 43.12% of total generation capacity.
The gross inflow of external commercial borrowings to infrastructure sectors reached US$ 9.05 billion in FY24, with domestic capital market resource mobilisation exceeding Rs. 1,00,000 crores (US$ 12 billion).
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: A LOOK THROUGH OUR LENS
India faces the dual challenge of pursuing economic development while implementing meaningful climate action, like other developing nations.
Developing countries require approximately US$ 6 trillion by 2030 to meet NDC targets, but only US$ 100 billion was pledged by developed nations.
India reduced emission intensity by 33% from 2005 to 2019, achieving its initial NDC target for 2030 eleven years early.
India achieved its goal of having 40% of electric installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, nine years ahead of the 2030 target.
Indias per capita emissions remain low at 2.5-2.8 tonnes CO2eq/year, compared with 8 tonnes for EU nations, indicating disparities in global emissions.
Indias traditional practices, such as integrated farming systems, offer sustainable solutions that avoid the pitfalls of Western industrial agriculture.
Governments must encourage sustainable lifestyles through policies that promote individual actions, such as reducing plastic use and energy consumption.
(Source: https://www.ibef.org/economY/economic-surveY-2023-24)
INDIAN MARKET FOR ARTIFICIAL FLOWERS
In India, the market is still small compared to fresh flowers.
Artificial flowers look good, do not disturb the environment and do not fade in a hurry, but theres a catch - they cost five to seven times more than fresh ones. Perhaps that is why artificial flowers dont sell well in India, making manufacturers look to Europe and the Middle East for a blooming business.
"It has a total turnover of around Rs.1,000 crore a year whereas the fresh flower market has a turnover of around Rs.8,000 to 9,000 crore a year," Vishal Gutgutia, managing director of leading Indian florists Ferns n Petals, told IANS.
He added that in India the total natural flower business covers 60 percent of the floriculture market, artificial flowers contributes 30 percent of the total turnover and 10 percent is taken up by dry flowers.
According to the artificial flower sellers in India, there are many bulk producers of these flowers, but with the market here attracting few takers, the producers have to look westwards.
Since the Indian market is mostly need driven, the demand for them (artificial flowers) is less here. Only the affluent sections have the pocket to splurge on products such as these to decorate their homes. We usually export them to Europe and the Middle East," said Saif Shah Nawaz, manufacturer, Candle & Blooms.
Incidentally, due to vast improvements in the quality of artificial flowers as well as lifestyles that demand low maintenance home decorating accessories, the market for them has grown into a multi-billion-dollar business in countries like Thailand and China.
The higher price is perhaps the main reason for the lower demand of the artificial flowers in India.
Talking about the price range of these flowers, Chetna Garg of Delhis Ranga Rang Creations said: "A natural rose flower costs Rs.10, while an artificial rose flower would cost a minimum of Rs.50. The price may rise depending on the design and the material used."
Manoj Rajani of Mumbais Agro-Care Products also agreed, adding that artificial flowers are usually priced five to seven times higher than their natural counterparts.
"That is one of the reasons for their lower popularity in the Indian market; so we export most of our stocks. A limited quantity is sent to local markets, that too at a cheaper price," he added.
Flower producers feel that these flowers do have their advantages.
"People like to throw grand parties, so they want decorations to be over the top. These (artificial) flowers can be of good use without disturbing the environment and they can be reused also," Rajani told IANS.
As per retailers, there is still a prevailing mindset that artificial flowers mean that they are made of cheap, shiny plastic - perhaps with a plastic dew stuck to a petal.
"Most Indians are quite wary of buying artificial flowers because most of them think they are only made of plastic, but in fact innovations and intricate work are used nowadays," said Mahesh Setia, who sells artificial and dry flowers at his shop, Florina.
Artificial flowers are available in an infinite variety - besides plastic, they are made of paper, cotton, parchment, latex, rubber, satin, porcelain and dried materials, including flowers and plant parts, berries, feathers and fruits.
"Our raw material comes from China and Japan, and we put in a lot hard work to make them look like the real ones," Setia added.
The people engaged in producing these flowers feel it is more profitable to buy artificial flowers as they require less maintenance, lasts longer and are hassle-free.
Prominent beautician Shahnaz Hussain is a lover of artificial flowers and is known to decorate her workplace and home with them. "I feel they are a wonderful way of adding beauty to the home and surroundings. The colours of the flowers and the leaves are natural," she told IANS.
For INTERIORS & MORE LIMITED
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Date: 23/08/2024 | ||
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